Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 5 April 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $46.80/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a significant step down from the sustained $65–$91/MWh range that characterised most of the daylight and early evening trading period. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices tracked between $67–$81/MWh through the morning peak (07:00–10:30 AEST), nudged toward $88–$91/MWh during the 14:45–16:10 AEST window, then began unwinding through the evening as demand eased from a intraday peak of roughly 5,325 MW back to the current 4,139 MW. Overnight pricing was deeply negative — bottoming near -$60/MWh around 12:40 AEST (02:40 UTC) — before recovering through the pre-dawn ramp.

The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 1,977 MW, with wind contributing 733 MW, gas OCGT at 108 MW, hydro at a negligible 0.12 MW, and solar at zero given the overnight window. Renewables are contributing 26.02% of the mix at the most recent interval — a meaningful lift from the 13–17% range that persisted through the business day when coal and gas were carrying higher load. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8807 tCO2/MWh, down from the intraday high of 1.0277 tCO2/MWh recorded around 17:30 AEST, reflecting the improved wind contribution into the evening. The daily carbon profile underscores how sensitive Victoria's intensity is to wind output, with the swing from ~1.03 to ~0.88 tCO2/MWh driven primarily by the current 733 MW wind read versus the sub-500 MW levels implied during the midday intensity peaks.

Predispatch forecasts point to $54.68/MWh for the 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC), easing to approximately $32–$36/MWh for the 07:30–08:00 AEST window — consistent with the overnight negative-to-near-zero pricing pattern seen across recent days. Load windows in the data confirm forecast prices near zero or negative from approximately 08:30 AEST through to 13:30 AEST (22:30–03:30 UTC), with the deepest negative forecasts reaching -$33 to -$38/MWh in the 09:30–10:30 AEST band. Traders with flexible overnight load should note these windows as rated "excellent" across the board. The morning ramp recovery toward positive territory is expected from approximately 13:00–14:00 AEST onward based on the load window profile.

The most operationally relevant active market notice for Victorian participants is the foreseeable AEMO intervention in the SA region (Notices 140937 and 140938), citing voltage management concerns from 09:30 AEST today (06 April). AEMO flagged that absent sufficient market response by 07:30 AEST, a direction may be issued — this has flow-on implications for Heywood interconnector dispatch and could influence VIC–SA flows through the morning period. Additionally, the NRM_NSW1_VIC1 negative settlement residue constraint (Notice 140918/140920) was active on Saturday before being cancelled at 15:00