Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 5 April 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $90.16/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 919 MW — well below the morning peak of 1,062 MW recorded around 18:30–19:00 AEST. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices have been remarkably stable, anchored in a tight $88–91/MWh band for the vast majority of intervals, with the only notable excursion being a brief spike to $108/MWh around 07:15–07:20 AEST and a sub-$45/MWh dip near 10:50–11:00 AEST before quickly recovering. The overnight trough saw prices briefly touch $42–50/MWh between approximately 10:50 and 11:00 AEST, likely reflecting a short-term oversupply or interconnector dynamic before the market snapped back.
The generation mix at the latest interval is hydro at 430.59 MW and wind at 123.64 MW, with gas OCGT contributing zero. Combined, that places total metered output from these sources at approximately 554 MW against 919 MW of demand, with the Basslink interconnector likely importing the balance from Victoria. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration recorded consistently across all available intervals today — a position that has held without interruption through the entire price history dataset.
Predispatch forecasts for the coming intervals point to prices consolidating in the $88–90/MWh range through the early morning (07:00–08:30 AEST), with load windows from around 11:00–14:00 AEST (UTC 01:00–04:00) showing forecast prices stepping down to $69–$88/MWh. The overnight period from approximately 11:30 AEST carries some of the lowest forecast values in the dataset, with several intervals priced at $69.16/MWh — suggesting demand trough conditions typical of a Monday public holiday period may be expected. No price spikes above $96/MWh are apparent in the predispatch outlook.
The active market notices most relevant to today are two AEMO market intervention notices (140937 and 140938) flagging a foreseeable intervention event in the SA region from 09:30 AEST, driven by voltage management requirements. While these are not directly applicable to TAS1, the SA voltage issue has potential flow-on implications for Heywood interconnector flows and Victorian dispatch conditions, which in turn influence Basslink import levels into Tasmania. Traders relying on mainland imports to balance Tasmanian load should monitor SA system conditions closely this morning, particularly ahead of AEMO's 07:30 AEST market response deadline referenced in the notice.