regional sa — SA1

The South Australian spot price sits at $49.04/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,223 MW. This marks a sharp retreat from the elevated conditions that dominated the morning and midday trading session, where prices repeatedly hit $138–$360/MWh between roughly 07:00 and 14:00 AEST, driven by AEMO-directed interventions for voltage control. The generation mix at the latest interval is wind-dominant: wind is contributing 441 MW, gas CCGT is providing 41 MW, gas OCGT is at zero, and solar has dropped to zero as expected post-sunset. Renewables are accounting for 91.43% of SA's generation at this interval, with carbon intensity at 0.042 tCO2/MWh — a significant improvement from the overnight and morning peak when intensity reached as high as 0.526 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration fell to below 4% during the pre-dawn period when gas was carrying the bulk of the load.

The critical operational issue for today is an active AEMO market intervention notice (MN 140938, updated 01:08 AEST) flagging a foreseeable voltage intervention in SA from 09:30 AEST this morning. AEMO has advised that, absent sufficient market response by 07:30 AEST, it may need to issue directions. This follows a sequence of directions and cancellations involving Barker Inlet PS (AGL) and Quarantine PS Unit 5 (Origin) that played out across the prior trading day, and which coincided with the sustained $138–$300/MWh price period seen between 07:00 and 15:00 AEST. Traders should note that intervention pricing did not apply to those earlier events — the same exemption is likely to carry forward if a new direction is issued today.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) point to a price around $57/MWh, and the 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at approximately $33/MWh, consistent with the current wind-heavy overnight profile and low overnight demand. Forecasts then step down further into negative territory across the 08:00–12:00 AEST window (22:00–02:00 UTC), with load window signals showing multiple intervals priced between -$8 and -$30/MWh, deepening further to below -$60/MWh around 14:30–15:00 AEST — indicating that wind output is expected to remain strong and outpace overnight demand. Flexible loads, batteries, and controllable assets with the ability to consume or charge during that window are positioned to capture maximum value from this sustained low-to-negative price forecast.

The key risk to this outlook is the unresolved voltage intervention. If AEMO issues directions from 09:30 AEST onward and synchronised gas plant is required to maintain voltage stability — as occurred through the prior session — prices could spike sharply above market fundamentals during the direction intervals. The pattern from the prior session shows dispatch prices repeatedly clearing at $138–$300/MWh during directed intervals despite a wind-heavy supply stack. Participants with exposure in SA should monitor AEMO market notices closely through the 07:30 AEST response window to determine whether directions are confirmed or the foreseeable intervention is stood down.