commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $59.14/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,654 MW — a material step down from the $71–$80/MWh range that held through the morning peak when demand crested at 7,281 MW around 08:20 AEST. That morning ramp followed a textbook overnight trough: demand bottomed near 4,060 MW around 10:40 AEST (UTC+10 equivalent) with prices repeatedly going negative, reaching as low as -$102/MWh during the early hours as supply outpaced load. The price-demand relationship has been tight and legible today — every sustained demand band above 7,000 MW locked in prices between $72–$84/MWh, while the slide back through 6,000 MW and below saw prices ease progressively toward the current $59/MWh.

The afternoon demand trajectory is the key variable for tonight's outlook. Demand has been declining from the 08:20 peak and is now in the 5,600–5,700 MW range as the post-work-day load builds toward a typical early-evening shoulder. The most recent AEMO forecast (issued 06:01 AEST) places the 07:00 AEST trading interval price at $55.75/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at $47.67/MWh — both below current actuals — signalling AEMO's dispatch engine expects demand to remain moderate into the evening rather than mount a sharp peak. Forecast prices for the 07:30 interval have been consistently in the $33–$48/MWh range across multiple forecast runs through the day, indicating the market is not pricing in a significant evening demand surge.

Overnight load windows (08:00–13:30 AEST, UTC+10) are forecast negative across the board, with the deepest troughs clustering around the 10:30–11:30 AEST window at prices of -$19 to -$25/MWh. This aligns with the pattern from the prior overnight session and reflects the structural demand trough that emerges once large industrial and commercial loads ease and dispatchable generation exceeds consumption. Flexible load operators and battery operators targeting charge cycles should note the deepest negative windows are forecast between 10:00–11:30 AEST. One network notice warrants monitoring: AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention event in SA from 09:30 AEST today for voltage reasons, with a market response deadline of 07:30 AEST. While this is an SA event, any direction outcomes affecting interconnector flows on the QNI could influence Queensland dispatch margins at the margin — particularly relevant given the active constraint set Q-LCCP_8859 following the overnight Larcom Creek–Calliope River 275kV line outage, which is constraining NSW–QLD transfer capacity.