Carbon Forecast

SA1 is the standout at 0.042 tCO2/MWh with 91.43% renewable penetration at 06:30 AEST, driven by 441 MW of wind and only 41 MW of gas CCGT on the margin. TAS1 sits at 0.000 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — 431 MW hydro and 124 MW wind — and has maintained that position across every interval in today's dataset. These two regions represent the lowest-intensity options on the NEM right now by a substantial margin.

NSW1, VIC1, and QLD1 are all operating in a materially higher band. NSW1 sits at 0.819 tCO2/MWh with just 6.98% renewables, its 4,616 MW of black coal dominating the mix with wind contributing only 134 MW and hydro 211 MW. VIC1 is at 0.854 tCO2/MWh despite 28.19% renewable penetration — 809 MW of wind — because 1,953 MW of brown coal underpins baseload; gas OCGT is adding 109 MW. QLD1 is the highest-intensity region at 0.848 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 3.61%, where 2,299 MW of black coal and 86 MW of hydro account for essentially all dispatch and solar is at zero.

Today's data shows SA1's lowest-intensity window has already run from around 20:00–06:30 AEST, with intensity bottoming near 0.042 tCO2/MWh as overnight wind supply exceeded demand and gas was largely displaced. That pattern is consistent with SA1's wind-heavy overnight profile visible throughout the dataset. As solar generation ramps post-sunrise, SA1 intensity is likely to remain low through the morning solar window before gas peaking re-enters in the evening. TAS1's zero-intensity profile is stable across all hours given its hydro-dominated dispatch and is not subject to solar-driven intraday swings.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling decisions today — EV charging, electrolysis, flexible industrial loads, or Scope 2 matching — SA1 and TAS1 offer the clearest windows at any hour. NSW1, VIC1, and QLD1 offer no comparable low-intensity period based on current mix; VIC1's best intervals from earlier in the data reached 0.792 tCO2/MWh around midnight when wind penetration lifted above 32%, so interconnected loads or PPA-backed positions should note that evening wind ramp as a secondary opportunity.