Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 4 April 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $64.29/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 4,203 MW — a marked contrast to the extended run of negative prices that dominated the overnight period, where prices bottomed at -$120.01/MWh around 13:00 AEST and held deeply negative from roughly 11:30 AEST through to 17:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile traces the classic overnight surplus-to-evening-demand arc: near-zero and negative prices through the low-demand, high-wind midday trough, climbing steadily from 17:00 AEST through the evening as demand lifted and solar output fell away, with the current $64.29/MWh sitting at the upper end of this evening band.

The generation mix at the most recent interval is dominated by brown coal at 2,065 MW, with wind contributing 404.63 MW, gas OCGT at 109.34 MW, hydro at 0.22 MW, and solar at zero — reflecting after-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 15.7%, down sharply from the 43–46% recorded during the overnight and early morning periods when wind output was stronger relative to lower total demand. Carbon intensity is 1.0043 tCO2/MWh, elevated compared to the 0.64–0.66 tCO2/MWh seen during this morning's higher-renewable windows, and consistent with the current mix where dispatchable thermal generation is carrying the bulk of evening load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour indicate prices around $63.32/MWh, easing to approximately $37.69/MWh by 07:30 AEST — a meaningful step down as demand begins to ease from its evening peak. This trajectory is consistent with weekend Sunday demand profiles, where the morning ramp-up is shallower and the plateau shorter. Flexible load and battery operators should note the load window data projects further negative price periods returning from approximately 08:30–09:30 AEST (00:00–01:00 UTC) tonight, with windows clustering below -$50/MWh in the 01:00–03:30 UTC band.

Two settlements residue notices remain active for Victoria: AEMO invoked the NRM_NSW1_VIC1 negative residue constraint at 14:05 AEST on 4 April, citing excess accumulation on the NSW-to-VIC directional interconnector, then cancelled it at 15:00 AEST. Both notices remain listed as active — traders on VIC1-NSW1 flows should confirm current constraint status directly with AEMO. A separate inter-regional transfer limit notice covers an unplanned outage of the Larcom Creek–Calliope River 275kV line in Queensland (constraint set Q-LCCP_8859 invoked at 02:40 AEST today), which affects the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector and has indirect implications for north-to-south flow capacity into Victoria. A high volume of Manifestly Incorrect Input price review notices was also issued across the 08:00–13:05 AEST window; the 13:05 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged, with all others resolved or pending — traders holding positions in those intervals should verify final settlement status.