regional sa — SA1

The South Australia spot price sits at $68.84/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,194.5 MW. That current price represents a marked step-up from the prior overnight session, which saw sustained negative prices from roughly 23:30 AEST through to 07:15 AEST — bottoming at -$119.36/MWh at 13:00 UTC — driven by wind generation exceeding local demand with limited export headroom. Prices shifted positive around 17:15 AEST as demand climbed back toward the morning shoulder, and have trended upward through the 06:00–06:30 AEST window, consistent with typical autumn morning ramp behaviour.

The current generation mix is wind-dominated: wind is generating 311.51 MW and gas CCGT is contributing 42.02 MW, with OCGT and utility solar both at zero output at this time of day. Renewable penetration sits at 88.11%, down from a midday peak of approximately 95% recorded around 21:00–23:00 UTC. Carbon intensity is 0.0582 tCO2/MWh, edging up from a low of 0.0243 tCO2/MWh during maximum wind penetration. The overnight intensity spike to 0.3244 tCO2/MWh around 15:00 UTC reflects gas carrying a larger share of a reduced load base during the pre-dawn minimum demand trough, when SA's net demand fell to near zero and below.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window point to prices in the $70–$140/MWh range, with some model runs flagging $170–$320/MWh in isolated 30-minute windows from approximately 08:30–10:30 AEST as demand builds into the Sunday morning peak and solar output remains modest at this time of year. The most recent pre-dispatch runs (issued around 06:00–06:30 AEST) are broadly converging on $70–$110/MWh through the 07:00–09:00 AEST period, suggesting the higher spikes are tail outcomes rather than the central forecast. The afternoon and evening outlook returns to the $40–$70/MWh range as solar adds to wind through midday.

Two market notices are relevant to SA conditions today. AEMO issued a Minimum System Load (MSL1) cancellation for SA at 13:50 AEST, confirming that the near-zero demand conditions during the overnight negative-price episode did not result in a sustained system security breach. Separately, a series of Manifestly Incorrect Input (MII) reviews covering approximately 09:05–13:20 AEST intervals remain active in the notice feed; all reviewed intervals confirmed prices unchanged. An inter-regional transfer limit variation (Q-LCCP_8859) relating to an unplanned outage of the Larcom Creek–Calliope River 275kV line in Queensland at 02:32 AEST today is active and constrains the N-Q-MNSP1 and NSW1-QLD1 interconnectors — this has indirect implications for SA via NEM-wide dispatch signals, though the binding constraint is in the Queensland corridor rather than on the Heywood or Murraylink interconnectors directly.