Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at a wide spread this morning (06:30 AEST). Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 353 MW and wind at 117 MW covering the entire state load. South Australia is at 0.06 tCO2/MWh with 88% renewable penetration, driven by 312 MW of wind with a small CCGT contribution of 42 MW. At the other end of the range, Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 3.5% — 2,462 MW of black coal dominates supply with negligible solar and hydro contribution. Victoria sits at 1.00 tCO2/MWh at 16.5% renewable penetration, where 2,036 MW of brown coal and 91 MW of gas OCGT underpin supply alongside 420 MW of wind. NSW is at 0.80 tCO2/MWh with 8.9% renewable penetration — 4,099 MW of black coal forms the base, supplemented by 227 MW of wind and 164 MW of hydro, with gas units offline.

The generation mix is driving a clear structural split across the NEM. SA and Tasmania's intensity is being held low by strong wind output and, in Tasmania's case, a fully hydro-and-wind dispatch stack. Victoria's intensity has been elevated throughout the morning period — the data shows it peaked at 1.12 tCO2/MWh around 04:00 AEST before easing marginally — and brown coal's baseload position means there is limited intraday variability unless wind output increases materially. Queensland's renewable penetration has been locked in the 3.5–4.1% band since mid-morning with negligible solar contributing, reflecting autumn solar angles and overcast conditions; intensity there has shown almost no intraday movement across the full data series.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA is the standout low-intensity window throughout the entire day — the region has held 88–95% renewable penetration consistently from mid-morning through to the current interval, with intensity ranging 0.024–0.058 tCO2/MWh. The lowest SA intensities have been recorded in the 11:00–14:30 AEST band (0.024–0.026 tCO2/MWh) when wind and any residual solar are coincident. As daylight extends through the afternoon, SA intensity edges slightly higher toward the 0.06 tCO2/MWh range but remains the lowest in the NEM by a wide margin. Tasmania's zero-intensity profile is consistent across all intervals and presents no intraday variability risk for schedulable loads. NSW and Victoria offer no comparable low-intensity windows today given their current mix; any improvement in those regions is contingent on wind ramp or a material change in coal dispatch that the data does not presently signal.