Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 3 April 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, continuing a sustained run of negative-to-near-zero pricing that has persisted for the better part of the past 12 hours. The price trajectory over today's session tells a clear story: deep negatives through the overnight trough (touching -$50.01/MWh around 09:45 AEST), a brief positive excursion during the morning demand peak where prices reached $21.75/MWh at 17:55 AEST, before returning negative through the late afternoon and evening as demand eased. Total demand currently sits at 4,417 MW, up from the overnight low of around 2,943 MW but well below the morning peak above 5,160 MW.

The generation mix at the latest trading interval shows wind contributing 1,124 MW and brown coal at 1,265 MW as the two dominant sources, with gas OCGT providing 110 MW of peaking capacity, hydro at a negligible 0.22 MW, and solar at zero given the overnight timing. Renewables are contributing 44.98% of generation, with carbon intensity sitting at 0.6461 tCO2/MWh — a meaningful improvement from the 0.87–0.88 tCO2/MWh range recorded during the early overnight hours when renewable penetration was as low as 25%. The carbon intensity has tracked downward through the evening as wind output has held firm against declining demand.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are converging on $0/MWh, consistent with the current price environment. The most recent forecast runs for the 07:30 AEST interval show prices edging back toward the $8.95–$11.00/MWh range as morning demand builds, with forecasts issued around 03:00–04:00 AEST having pointed to prices in the $17–$36/MWh range for that window before being revised sharply lower — suggesting dispatchers are now more confident supply will be adequate through the shoulder period. Flexible load operators and battery charging strategies should note that load window signals cluster around 09:30–14:30 AEST (00:00–04:30 UTC) with aggregated forecast prices between -$60/MWh and -$135/MWh, indicating continued surplus supply conditions into the pre-dawn period.

AEMO has issued a high volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B across multiple intervals today, covering intervals from 15:00 through to 06:10 AEST. Of the active notices, the 05:50 AEST interval has been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, while intervals 05:15 through 06:10 AEST remain subject to review — meaning prices for those intervals are not yet final. Traders should treat VIC settlement exposure for these intervals as provisional. Separately, AEMO confirmed at 15:00 AEST that the negative settlement residue constraint on the NSW-to-VIC directional interconnector (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) has ceased operating, which had been active since market notice 140570 — this removes a previously binding transmission constraint on northbound flows from Victoria.