regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $72.19/MWh with total demand at 1,055.68 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That current price is well below the morning peak, which ran from roughly 18:30–19:30 AEST when prices sustained $96.77/MWh across multiple consecutive intervals — the most prolonged elevated band of the day. Over the past 24 hours the price profile shows three distinct phases: a late-evening floor around $50.13/MWh, a volatile overnight period with brief spikes to $88.10/MWh, and a sustained mid-morning elevation above $96/MWh before easing into the $70–75/MWh range through this afternoon and evening.

Generation is entirely renewable. Hydro is producing 547.75 MW and wind is contributing 72 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, a position that has held continuously throughout the entire recorded history dataset. The total metered generation of approximately 620 MW against demand of 1,055.68 MW implies Tasmania is drawing significant volume from Victoria via Basslink to balance the region — worth noting for interconnector-exposed positions.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging around $76/MWh, down from earlier forecasts that had that interval pencilled as high as $108.41/MWh. The trajectory from the most recent runs is firmly lower, with the 07:30–08:30 AEST window forecast at approximately $70.18/MWh and early morning hours (10:00–14:30 AEST) showing some load window opportunities in the $20–$55/MWh range rated "excellent" quality — consistent with Tasmania's typical low-demand Saturday overnight profile.

AEMO has issued a cluster of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 05:15 through 06:10 AEST this morning, with the 05:50 AEST interval already confirmed unchanged. Traders should note these reviews remain active for the 05:25–06:10 AEST window — any manifestly incorrect input finding could revise those settlement prices. A separate settlements residue notice (MN 140645) confirmed cessation of the NRM\_NSW1\_VIC1 negative residue constraint at 15:00 AEST yesterday, which removes one source of interconnector flow distortion on the NSW–VIC path that can indirectly influence Basslink scheduling.