regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $0/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping a sustained period of negative pricing that characterised much of the overnight session. From around 07:15 AEST the market swung deeply negative, reaching as low as -$188.99/MWh at 13:20 AEST, before recovering into positive territory during the morning demand ramp — peaking near $38.09/MWh at 17:55 AEST — then drifting back to near-zero through the afternoon and evening as demand eased from its 1,497 MW peak. Total demand currently sits at 1,254 MW. The 24-hour price profile reflects a classic pattern of overnight generation surplus followed by a morning price spike and a flattening afternoon.

Wind is the dominant generation source at 782 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 42 MW and gas OCGT and solar both at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 94.9% and carbon intensity is 0.025 tCO2/MWh — consistent with the elevated renewable share recorded throughout the day, which ranged from a low of 76.5% in the early hours to a high of 95.7% at midday. The absence of any solar output at this interval confirms the generation profile is entirely wind-led at this time of day.

Predispatch forecasts for the next trading period (07:30 AEST) point to prices in the range of $8–$9/MWh, with the 07:00 AEST half-hour forecast at $0/MWh — suggesting the market is expected to lift modestly as the morning demand ramp takes hold. Load window signals indicate strongly negative prices are forecast to return from approximately 08:30 AEST through to at least 14:30 AEST, with indicative prices as low as -$295/MWh around 14:00 AEST, consistent with the wind-dominated overnight and mid-morning surplus conditions expected to repeat today.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a large volume of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for multiple intervals across today — covering intervals from 05:15 through to 06:10 AEST — with AEMO citing potential manifestly incorrect inputs. The 05:50 AEST interval has since been confirmed with prices unchanged. Separately, the NSW–VIC negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) was cancelled at 15:00 AEST yesterday, removing a transmission management action that had been active on that interconnector. Market participants with exposure to SA settlement periods flagged under review should treat those interval prices as provisional pending final AEMO determination.