commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $63.89/MWh with total demand at 5,673.6 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a Saturday morning level consistent with the post-peak wind-down that has been underway since the day's demand ceiling of approximately 7,376 MW was reached around 18:20 AEST. The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: the overnight trough saw demand fall to around 4,700–4,800 MW between roughly 12:35–13:00 AEST, where spot repeatedly printed zero or negative (reaching -$5.00/MWh at the nadir), before the morning ramp drove demand back above 5,000 MW and prices re-entered positive territory. The morning peak between approximately 17:20–18:25 AEST saw demand push through 7,300 MW, anchoring prices in the $71–$73.88/MWh range — a clear demonstration of how tightly marginal cost dispatch tracks load on this grid.

Demand is now declining along the post-morning-peak trajectory and, based on the settlement data, is tracking around 5,600–5,700 MW and falling. The near-term forecast RRP for the 07:00 AEST interval sits at $52.75/MWh, with earlier forecasts for that period having been revised up from the low-$50s to around $52.75/MWh as the morning played out — a modest signal that supply adequacy is comfortable. The overnight low-demand window (roughly midnight to 06:30 AEST tonight, corresponding to UTC 14:00–20:30) is forecast to produce deeply negative prices in the range of -$5 to -$35/MWh, with some load window estimates touching -$38/MWh around 13:00 AEST. This reflects structural overnight oversupply given baseload black coal output of approximately 2,216 MW running at flat dispatch against demand that will again fall toward 4,700–4,800 MW.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a significant volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews covering intervals from approximately 15:10 AEST yesterday through to today's early morning period (05:15–06:10 AEST). The 05:50 AEST interval has been confirmed with prices unchanged; the 06:00 and 06:10 AEST intervals remain under active review. These reviews carry settlement risk for positions in those windows and should be treated with caution until confirmed. The NRM_NSW1_VIC1 negative residue constraint that had been active on the NSW–VIC interconnector ceased at 15:00 AEST on 3 April, which removes one source of inter-regional pricing distortion that was relevant to yesterday's afternoon dispatch.

For demand-side managers and flexible load operators, the overnight window from approximately 08:00 AEST tonight onwards represents the most attractive demand-shifting opportunity, with forecast prices deep in negative territory through to the pre-dawn ramp. The Saturday demand profile typically produces a shallower and later morning peak than weekdays, which means the return to $50+/MWh pricing is likely to be deferred relative to the pattern seen this morning — reducing the urgency of any peak avoidance strategy until at least 15:00–16:00 AEST today.