Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro (548 MW) and wind (72 MW) covering the entire island's load with zero fossil dispatch. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.025 tCO2/MWh, with wind delivering 782 MW and renewables at 94.9% of the mix; only 42 MW of gas CCGT is online, keeping intensity at near-negligible levels consistently across the day's data. Victoria is mid-range at 0.659 tCO2/MWh with 43.9% renewables — wind is generating 1,074 MW against 1,264 MW of brown coal and 110 MW of gas OCGT. NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions: NSW sits at 0.818 tCO2/MWh with black coal supplying 4,527 MW and renewables contributing just 7% (wind 191 MW, solar 149 MW); Queensland is at 0.847 tCO2/MWh, with 2,216 MW of black coal, hydro at 86 MW, and renewables at only 3.8% — the lowest penetration across the NEM.

The intensity trajectory through today's data shows SA has been exceptionally stable, holding between 0.021–0.025 tCO2/MWh across all daylight intervals, with the solar contribution now absent given the 06:30 AEST timestamp on this data equates to post-sunset conditions locally. SA's overnight wind resource has kept intensity essentially flat. Victoria showed its lowest intensity readings in the 17:00–20:00 AEST window, reaching 0.640–0.646 tCO2/MWh as wind output held strong. NSW intensity has been broadly range-bound between 0.75–0.82 tCO2/MWh all day with no meaningful low-intensity window — the renewable share peaked around 15% near 07:00 AEST but has since compressed back below 8%. Queensland has been particularly inflexible, locked above 0.847 tCO2/MWh since roughly 08:00 AEST with renewable penetration below 4% throughout.

For carbon-sensitive loads seeking dispatch timing, SA is the clear low-intensity option at any point in the day, with no meaningful green window risk. TAS1 offers guaranteed zero-intensity conditions on interconnector-accessible loads. In Victoria, the 16:00–20:30 AEST window is where intensity consistently drops toward 0.64–0.69 tCO2/MWh, driven by sustained wind output; this window is likely to persist into tonight provided wind generation holds above 1,000 MW. NSW and Queensland offer no low-intensity windows in today's profile — carbon-sensitive scheduling in those regions should defer to off-peak periods if interconnector capacity allows access to SA or TAS generation, or wait for any wind ramp that may materialise overnight.