regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $8.95/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, a dramatic collapse from the evening peak that saw prices sustain above $170–236/MWh between 07:15 and 08:10 AEST. Over the past 24 hours, prices trended from elevated evening levels down through near-zero and negative territory during the overnight period — with dispatch intervals touching as low as -$12.06/MWh around 14:25 AEST — before recovering modestly through the morning. Total demand sits at 4,216 MW, well below the evening peak of ~6,048 MW recorded around 07:45 AEST, reflecting the typical Friday morning demand trough as commercial and industrial load eases post-peak.

The current generation mix shows brown coal supplying 1,690 MW as the dominant baseload source, wind contributing 906 MW, and gas (OCGT) on 109 MW. Solar output is currently zero, consistent with the early morning hour. Hydro is negligible at 0.22 MW. Renewables are contributing approximately 34% of the dispatch mix at the latest carbon interval (07:30 AEST), up substantially from the overnight lows of just 2–4% when wind was suppressed during the prior evening. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7836 tCO2/MWh as of 07:30 AEST, having improved from above 1.10 tCO2/MWh during the previous evening's high-demand window when renewable penetration was minimal.

Predispatch forecasts for the 09:00 AEST half-hour interval have progressively revised down across the morning, with the most recent forecast at $11/MWh — down from earlier estimates of $75–77/MWh issued overnight. The 09:30 AEST interval is forecast at around $13–14/MWh. Load window data indicates prices are expected to remain negative to very low across the mid-morning window from approximately 08:30–09:30 AEST, with optimal load shifting windows showing prices as low as -$54/MWh during the 12:30–17:30 AEST period (AEST). A price recovery toward the $30–70/MWh range is anticipated into the late afternoon as solar ramps down and demand rebuilds for the early evening peak.

Traders and grid engineers should note an active and extensive series of AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for consecutive intervals spanning approximately 02:30 through to 06:25 AEST this morning. The 05:10 AEST and 02:00 AEST intervals have since been confirmed with prices unchanged, but the bulk of the early morning intervals — including 04:00 through 06:25 AEST — remain under active review. Traders holding positions in those intervals should not treat settled prices as final until AEMO issues confirmation notices. No affected regions are specified in the notices, but given the concentration of negative pricing during those intervals, any re-pricing outcome carries material settlement risk.