regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $8.65/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a fraction of the elevated levels seen during last evening's peak when prices ran between $140–$257/MWh from 07:35–09:10 AEST (UTC+10:30 offset applied). The current generation mix is wind at 699.34 MW and gas CCGT at 42.69 MW, with solar and gas OCGT contributing zero at this pre-dawn hour. Total demand is 1,236 MW. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: deep negative prices dominated the overnight period — bottoming near -$8.50/MWh between roughly 14:20–16:55 AEST — before recovering through the morning ramp. The current price of $8.65/MWh reflects the transition out of that low-price overnight regime as demand lifts toward the morning peak.

Renewable penetration sits at 94.25% and carbon intensity is 0.0282 tCO2/MWh at the latest interval, driven almost entirely by wind. This is a marked improvement on the 18.99% renewable share recorded during the early evening peak 24 hours ago, when intensity reached 0.4335 tCO2/MWh. The trajectory through today's daylight hours will depend on wind output holding and rooftop and utility solar contributing as irradiance builds. The carbon history shows intensity consistently below 0.03 tCO2/MWh from 14:30 AEST onward, a level that has been sustained through the night.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) trading period — which corresponds to this morning's demand ramp — are converging around $25–$28/MWh in the most recent runs, down sharply from earlier forecasts of $67–$79/MWh issued overnight. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $10–$13/MWh. Load window signals are rated "excellent" across overnight and early morning periods from 08:00 AEST onward, with negative average prices forecast into the $-15 to $-52/MWh range through the 09:00–11:00 AEST window as solar generation ramps. Flexible and deferrable loads should note that the window from approximately 08:30–11:30 AEST carries the deepest negative price signals.

AEMO has issued a large number of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 03-Apr-2026 02:15 AEST through to 06:30 AEST. These are "Prices Subject to Review" notices — the 02:00 AEST, 03:15 AEST, 03:40 AEST, and 05:10 AEST intervals have each been subsequently confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of intervals from 02:15 through 06:30 AEST remain under active review. Traders and settlement teams should treat prices across this two-plus hour window as potentially subject to revision until AEMO issues confirmed or revised outcomes. The pattern of negative prices in those intervals is consistent with high wind output against low overnight demand, which is a common trigger for manifestly incorrect input reviews in SA.