commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $56.40/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,713 MW — well below the day's peak of 7,907 MW reached around 18:00–18:10 AEST during the morning trading session. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: as demand climbed from the overnight trough of roughly 5,180 MW toward the 7,900 MW morning peak, prices escalated sharply from the low $20s/MWh into the $88–$106/MWh range between 17:00 and 18:00 AEST. The subsequent demand retreat from that peak has tracked prices down in near-lockstep, with the current 5,713 MW level consistent with the $50–$60/MWh band observed during comparable demand periods overnight.
Forecasts for the next two intervals point to continued softening — $52.75/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $29.23/MWh at 07:30 AEST — as demand continues its post-morning-peak decline. Forecast load windows through the early hours of 3 April price deeply into negative territory (as low as -$27.50/MWh around 09:30–10:00 AEST), indicating AEMO's dispatch engine anticipates supply surpluses as demand bottoms out overnight and rooftop solar begins contributing through the morning. The load window data rated consistently "excellent" across all forward intervals signals that flexible and deferrable load has significant cost advantage in shifting consumption into the 22:00–06:00 AEST window.
A material market notice risk is active: AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for a continuous run of intervals from approximately 04:35 through 12:30 AEST today, citing potential Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. Two earlier intervals — 05:10 and 03:40 AEST — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but the volume of outstanding reviews across the early-morning period means that settled prices for those intervals remain provisional. Traders with positions referencing those intervals should treat published prices as subject to revision until AEMO issues confirmation notices.
The day's price outlook is defined by the Friday demand profile: a second peak is typical in the 07:00–09:00 AEST evening period (19:00–21:00 AEST), and the earlier AEMO forecasts generated through the day consistently pointed to $71–$86/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval before revising sharply lower as the actual demand trajectory emerged softer than anticipated. With current demand already below 5,750 MW and falling, the evening ramp will be the primary price risk event remaining for today's trading session.