Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM is sharply divergent at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro (227 MW) and wind (204 MW) accounting for all generation. South Australia is at 0.03 tCO2/MWh with 94% renewables, almost entirely wind at 699 MW with a minor gas CCGT contribution of 43 MW. These two regions are effectively at their intensity floor right now and have been tracking below 0.03 tCO2/MWh since mid-morning. At the other end, NSW and Queensland are both near 0.85 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration of just 3–4% — black coal dominates in both, with NSW carrying 4,534 MW of coal generation and Queensland 2,452 MW, solar and wind contributing minimally at this hour. Victoria sits mid-range at 0.77 tCO2/MWh with 35% renewables; brown coal runs at 1,519 MW, but 885 MW of wind is keeping intensity below its overnight peak of 1.12 tCO2/MWh recorded earlier this morning.

The trajectory through today tells a clear story. SA has been in a sustained low-intensity window since around 09:30 AEST when intensity dropped below 0.08 tCO2/MWh, and that window continues now with no sign of deterioration — wind output is holding firm and no significant gas dispatch is showing. Tasmania's 0 tCO2/MWh profile has been unbroken all day. For carbon-sensitive loads able to operate in SA or schedule against SA prices, the entire daylight and evening period today represents a viable green window. NSW and Queensland show no material improvement expected through the evening; solar output is negligible at 146 MW and 5 MW respectively at this hour, and the coal-dominated baseload is not displacing. Victoria recorded its best intensity between 03:30 and 05:00 AEST (down to 0.78 tCO2/MWh) on overnight wind strength, and again in the evening from around 18:00 AEST as wind picked up — the current 0.77 tCO2/MWh reflects that evening wind pulse continuing.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling decisions: SA and TAS offer the lowest-intensity windows available on the NEM right now and through the remainder of today. Loads with interconnector access or virtual exposure to SA pricing have the strongest case for shifting consumption into the current window. NSW and QLD carbon intensity is unlikely to improve materially tonight given the generation mix in place — both regions will remain above 0.84 tCO2/MWh until solar re-enters the mix tomorrow morning.