Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 1 April 2026
The Victorian spot price sits at $179.92/MWh as at the 06:30 AEST interval, with total demand at 5,918 MW. This represents the peak of a sustained evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST (~$97/MWh) and accelerated sharply through the 06:20–06:30 window, touching $216.39/MWh at 06:25 before easing back. The 24-hour price profile shows a dramatic intraday range: prices were near zero or briefly negative through the overnight trough (approximately 11:30–12:00 AEST), climbed steadily from the morning demand uptick around 12:10 AEST, and have remained above $120/MWh since approximately 17:00 AEST. The sustained elevation through the evening peak reflects tight supply margins against demand climbing to the high 5,000s–low 6,000s MW.
The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,088 MW, with gas (OCGT) contributing 383.63 MW and hydro at 80.02 MW. Wind is contributing just 17.57 MW and solar is at 0 MW given the overnight timing. Combined renewables account for 3.8% of generation at this interval — a significant contraction from the overnight period where renewables reached 27–33% as wind output was stronger and demand lower. Carbon intensity sits at 1.0885 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from 0.81 tCO2/MWh recorded at the start of the data window around 07:30 AEST yesterday. Intensity has been elevated above 1.05 tCO2/MWh since approximately 22:30 AEST as renewable penetration compressed and thermal plant carried the demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval point to $170.29/MWh, suggesting modest easing from the current print but prices remaining well above $150/MWh through the next trading interval. Earlier predispatch runs made during the overnight period had forecast the 07:00 interval as high as $316/MWh (03:00 AEST run), stepping down progressively as actual conditions evolved — the current $170.29 forecast reflects a market that has partially cleared the demand peak but has not yet unwound evening pricing pressure. Load shifting to the 08:00–09:00 AEST window, where predispatch signals prices in the $35–$60/MWh range, represents a material cost reduction opportunity for flexible loads.
A significant volume of active market notices requires attention. AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every trading interval from 03:45 AEST through 06:30 AEST this morning — over 20 consecutive intervals are under review. Two intervals (03:35 AEST and 05:15 AEST) have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The remaining intervals, spanning the entire morning ramp period including the $216.39/MWh spike at 06:25 AEST and the current $179.92/MWh settlement, remain under active review. Market participants with exposure to these intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO concludes its assessment.