regional tas — TAS1

The Tasmania spot price sits at $128.04/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, representing a sharp escalation from the mid-session trough — prices bottomed near $66–$70/MWh during the early afternoon before climbing steadily through the evening peak, with the last three intervals printing $120.75, $133.59, and $128.04/MWh respectively. Total demand is 1,183 MW, up from a daytime low around 908 MW, consistent with the typical autumn evening ramp. The 24-hour range has been wide: roughly $66/MWh to $134/MWh, with the $96–$97/MWh band acting as a recurring floor through the overnight and morning periods.

The generation mix is hydro-dominated, with 523.71 MW from hydro and 20.88 MW from wind currently dispatched. Gas OCGT registers zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has held continuously across every 30-minute interval in the carbon history throughout today. The total metered generation of approximately 545 MW against 1,183 MW of reported demand indicates significant net import flow across Basslink from Victoria — traders should factor mainland price conditions into any TAS exposure assessment.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target converged markedly upward through the day: early morning runs projected $259–$284/MWh, afternoon runs corrected sharply to $96–$97/MWh, then stepped back up to $114/MWh by the 00:00 AEST run, before the most recent 06:01 AEST predispatch settles at $120.12/MWh. The direction of travel across the forecast revisions — and the live print of $128/MWh — suggests upward pricing pressure is persisting into the post-06:30 period. The 07:30 and 08:00 AEST windows are currently pointing to $96–$107/MWh across the load window data, implying some moderation is expected but the signal remains noisy.

AEMO has issued an extensive series of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering every trading interval from 03:45 through to 06:30 AEST today — that is more than 25 consecutive intervals flagged as potentially containing manifestly incorrect inputs. One earlier interval (03:35 AEST) has been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The 05:15 AEST interval has also been confirmed with prices unchanged. All remaining notices from 03:45 to 06:30 AEST remain active and unresolved. Participants with positions in those intervals should treat those prices as provisional; retrospective adjustments remain possible until AEMO concludes each review.