regional sa — SA1

The South Australian spot price sits at $175.22/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the $207.69/MWh spike seen at 06:25 and well above the $100–140/MWh band that characterised most of the morning session. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: SA traded at or near zero — and briefly negative — through the early hours (roughly 23:30–03:00 AEST), before climbing steadily from around 14:30 AEST through the pre-dawn period, with prices consistently holding above $100/MWh from 14:00 AEST onward as demand rose from a trough of around 350 MW to the current 1,428 MW.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is gas-dominated. Gas CCGT is contributing 503 MW and gas OCGT a further 208 MW, together accounting for approximately 80% of local dispatch. Wind is generating 173 MW (roughly 19.6% of supply), and solar is producing 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 19.58%, the lowest point recorded across the entire 24-hour history in the dataset, which peaked at 63.84% during the overnight wind-heavy period around 08:20 AEST on Wednesday. Carbon intensity is currently 0.4316 tCO2/MWh, having risen steadily since approximately 05:00 AEST as wind output eased and gas dispatch increased to meet the morning demand ramp.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period point to $177.56/MWh, suggesting prices hold near current levels into the next interval. The 07:30 AEST window is forecast in the $133–152/MWh range across multiple predispatch runs, and the 08:00 AEST period shows forecasts clustering around $103–133/MWh, indicating the market anticipates some price softening as solar generation begins to lift. Earlier predispatch runs issued around 12:30–13:30 AEST were projecting as high as $333–360/MWh for this morning period, so actual outcomes are tracking materially below those early estimates.

Traders should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for intervals spanning 03:45 AEST through to 16:30 AEST today. Two intervals — 03:35 AEST and 05:15 AEST — have since been confirmed with prices remaining unchanged, but the bulk of the morning's intervals from 04:00 AEST onward remain under active review. Any revisions could alter settlement costs materially for participants with exposure to those periods. No affected regions are specified in the notices, so the review scope across the NEM is not yet defined from this data alone.