commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $104.61/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,525 MW — a significant elevation from the overnight trough of around 5,260 MW recorded near 01:00 AEST. The demand-price relationship across today's trading has been pronounced: prices collapsed into single digits and zero during the early-morning low-demand window (5,260–5,400 MW, 11:00–12:00 AEST) before climbing sharply through the morning ramp. The most acute pricing response came as demand surged past 6,400 MW from 03:25 AEST onward, with prices breaking above $90/MWh and holding there through the current interval. The peak demand of 8,160 MW at 18:35 AEST coincided with prices reaching $88.88/MWh, reflecting tight supply conditions as morning commercial and industrial load stacked against residual baseload.
The evening ramp from 03:10 AEST tells the clearest demand-price story of the day. Demand climbed from 5,787 MW at 03:00 AEST to above 6,500 MW by 06:20 AEST — a 740 MW lift in under 90 minutes — and prices responded by moving from the mid-$50s/MWh through to the current $104.61/MWh. This price level reflects the market clearing on higher-cost plant as demand pushes through the mid-merit stack. Notably, prices were sustained in the $91–$104/MWh band for much of the 04:00–06:30 AEST window even as demand plateaued near 6,500 MW, indicating limited headroom in available supply at this demand level.
The forward price forecast for the next half-hour (07:00 AEST) sits at $92.73/MWh, signalling a modest easing from the current $104.61/MWh. This is consistent with demand stabilising rather than continuing its upward trajectory. Traders should note that AEMO has issued an extensive run of "prices subject to review" market notices covering intervals from 03:55 through to 06:30 AEST today under NER clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) — only the 03:35 AEST interval has been confirmed unchanged. This creates material settlement risk across a large block of today's early-morning intervals; final prices for those periods remain subject to revision.
Demand-side load shifting has a clear opportunity window in tonight's overnight trough. The optimal load window points to the 08:00–09:00 AEST period (UTC 22:00–23:00), where forecast prices sit in the $12–$46/MWh range — a saving of $60–$90/MWh against current spot. Based on today's intraday profile, demand typically bottoms between midnight and 02:00 AEST and prices have historically touched zero or near-zero in those intervals, as seen in the overnight period just passed.