Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — its hydro-dominant mix (524 MW hydro, 21 MW wind) produces zero recorded emissions across every interval in today's dataset. South Australia is next at 0.43 tCO2/MWh with 19.6% renewables at the 07:00 AEST read (06:30 UTC+10:30), where 173 MW of wind and 207 MW gas OCGT plus 503 MW gas CCGT make up the bulk of supply. NSW sits at 0.74 tCO2/MWh with 16.4% renewables, underpinned by 5,612 MW of black coal alongside 934 MW hydro and 170 MW of wind and solar combined. QLD is at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with just 3.5% renewables — 2,474 MW of black coal dominates that region's mix with negligible solar and hydro contribution at this hour. Victoria is the highest at 1.09 tCO2/MWh with only 3.8% renewables, driven by 2,088 MW brown coal and 384 MW gas OCGT; wind output of 18 MW is essentially flat.

Looking at today's trajectory, NSW recorded its cleanest intervals overnight between approximately 07:30–10:00 AEST (06:30–09:00 UTC+11), when renewables reached ~19–20% and intensity dipped to 0.706–0.708 tCO2/MWh — that solar-assisted trough has already passed. Intensity has been rising gradually since, sitting at 0.74 tCO2/MWh as of 07:30 AEST. VIC tracked its intraday low earlier in the session around 08:00 AEST (~0.85 tCO2/MWh, 27% renewables with wind performing) before deteriorating sharply through the morning; wind output has effectively collapsed to 18 MW and the region has held above 1.05 tCO2/MWh since midday. SA's best window today was in the 02:00–05:00 AEST range when wind pushed renewables above 47–50% and intensity fell as low as 0.18 tCO2/MWh; it has since trended upward through the evening.

For carbon-sensitive loads planning the remainder of today, Tasmania remains the unambiguous low-intensity option for the full 24-hour period. In SA, the next potential low-intensity window depends on overnight wind recovery — the current 0.43 tCO2/MWh reading at ~80 MW net wind suggests moderate conditions, and any sustained wind uplift after midnight could push renewables back above 40% as seen in last night's 02:00–05:00 block. NSW offers marginal green windows if rooftop and utility solar performs during tomorrow morning's ramp (roughly 08:00–10:00 AEST), where intensity could again test 0.70–0.71 tCO2/MWh. VIC and QLD offer no credible low-intensity windows in the near term given current generation mix composition and low renewable output — both regions are tracking above 0.85 tCO2/MWh with no solar contribution at this evening hour and minimal wind in VIC.