regional vic — VIC1
The Victorian spot price sits at $11/MWh as of 07:35 AEST, well below the morning peak that saw prices reach $80.83/MWh around 19:20 AEST. The overnight session was characterised by sustained negative pricing — bottoming at -$32.77/MWh around 13:05 AEST — before demand climbed back through the morning ramp. Total demand currently sits at 5,655 MW, tracking down from the 07:55 AEST peak of 6,341 MW as the morning commercial load eases. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear overnight trough driven by excess supply, a sharp morning spike between 17:55 and 19:55 AEST, and a rapid retreat back to floor-level pricing as demand fell.
The current generation mix (as at 07:30 AEST) is dominated by brown coal at 1,835 MW, with wind contributing 1,121 MW and gas OCGT providing a minor 9.91 MW. Solar output is zero given the time of day, and hydro is negligible at 0.12 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 37.8%, down from a midday high of approximately 50.95% recorded during the 01:30 AEST interval. Carbon intensity is 0.7569 tCO2/MWh, having been as low as 0.5794 tCO2/MWh during the solar-and-wind-heavy afternoon window around 01:30 AEST — a delta of roughly 0.18 tCO2/MWh across the day. Sustainability managers should note that the lowest-intensity window has already passed for this trading day.
The most recent predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining in the $11–$19/MWh range through the 08:00–09:30 AEST window, with the 09:00 AEST half-hour showing a consensus near $8.95/MWh across multiple predispatch runs. Earlier forecasts issued overnight had flagged up to $55.92/MWh for the 08:00 AEST period, but those have been revised sharply lower as actual conditions played out. Load optimisation windows rated "excellent" are forecast across the 08:30–10:00 AEST period at prices between $8.95 and $19.18/MWh, giving flexible industrial consumers a clear opportunity to shift load.
Traders should be aware of a significant volume of active AEMO market notices: AEMO is reviewing prices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for 35+ consecutive intervals covering approximately 03:30–07:35 AEST today. One interval — 05:45 AEST — has already been confirmed with prices unchanged following review. The remaining intervals from 03:35 through to 07:35 AEST remain under active review. Positions referencing settled prices in this window carry retrospective revision risk until AEMO concludes its assessment. No specific affected regions are flagged in the notices, but given the volume and timing, VIC1 exposure should be treated as unconfirmed for this block.