Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 31 March 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $111.93/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,111.69 MW — the highest level in the current data window and up from a trough of around 769 MW in the early hours. This represents a clear evening demand ramp, with prices climbing from a sustained band of $70.22/MWh during the mid-afternoon through to current levels above $110/MWh. The 24-hour price range has been wide — intraday lows touched $70.22/MWh repeatedly between roughly 14:00 and 18:00 AEST, while the morning peak reached $130.97/MWh at 17:00 AEST, giving traders a spread of around $60/MWh across the day.
The generation mix is entirely renewable at this interval. Hydro is contributing 296.96 MW and wind 51.86 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100% — a position that has held consistently across every recorded interval in the dataset. No battery or other fuel types are reported in the current dispatch window.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing slightly from the current $111.93/MWh level, with the 07:00 AEST half-hour forecast at $114.79/MWh before settling back toward the $96.24–$100.81/MWh range through the 08:00–09:00 AEST period. The forward outlook through to 09:30 AEST suggests a gradual moderation, with most forecast intervals clustering between $96.24/MWh and $101.37/MWh — still well above the afternoon floor but significantly below the evening peak.
Traders should note a substantial volume of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for a continuous run of intervals covering approximately 02:35 through to 06:30 AEST today. The sole resolved notice confirms the 04:45 AEST interval with prices unchanged. The breadth of open review notices — spanning over three hours of consecutive intervals — is material: any retrospective price revision across that window could affect settlement positions. No specific affected regions are nominated in the notices, so exposure is NEM-wide until AEMO concludes its review.