regional sa — SA1
The South Australia spot price sits at $41.94/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,599 MW. This is a notable step-up from the deep negative pricing that characterised much of the overnight period, where prices bottomed at -$189/MWh between approximately 12:35–12:45 AEST and sustained sub -$85/MWh for several hours through the early morning. The evening ramp from around 04:35 AEST has pushed prices back into positive territory, rising through the $40s as demand climbed from a trough near 475 MW to the current level.
The generation mix at the most recent trading interval (06:30 AEST) shows wind contributing 180 MW and gas CCGT at 118 MW, with solar and gas OCGT both at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 60.34%, down from the overnight high of 94.59% recorded around 07:00 AEST when demand was low and wind was strong. Carbon intensity is 0.1943 tCO2/MWh — elevated compared to the sub-0.03 tCO2/MWh readings seen in the overnight low-demand window, reflecting gas CCGT carrying a larger proportional share as demand recovers and solar has not yet contributed to the morning mix.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting further over the next 90 minutes. The most recent 06:01 AEST predispatch run has the 07:00 AEST interval at $46.46/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour stepping up to a range around $45–$70/MWh depending on the run vintage, and the 08:00 AEST interval forecast in the $79–$103/MWh band across multiple runs. Afternoon solar output will be the primary variable moderating the morning price trajectory; absent significant solar contribution before approximately 09:00–10:00 AEST, gas CCGT dispatch is likely to keep prices in the $45–$80/MWh range through the breakfast peak.
AEMO has issued a high volume of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 02:35 AEST through to 06:30 AEST today. These span roughly 28 consecutive intervals and remain unresolved, with one earlier interval (04:45 AEST) confirmed unchanged. Traders with settlement exposure across these intervals should treat current recorded prices as provisional — any retrospective revision could materially affect half-hour settlement outcomes for positions held during the overnight negative-price window.