Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at its highest in NSW and QLD at 0.86 and 0.85 tCO2/MWh respectively at 07:30 AEST, with renewable penetration at just 2.2% and 3.1% — black coal dominates both regions, with NSW running 5,426 MW and QLD 2,827 MW of coal generation and negligible contributions from wind and solar at this pre-dawn hour. Victoria sits at 0.76 tCO2/MWh with 37.8% renewables, driven by 1,121 MW of wind against a brown coal base of 1,835 MW and minimal gas. South Australia comes in at 0.19 tCO2/MWh on 60.3% renewables, with 180 MW of wind and 118 MW of gas CCGT filling the balance. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables, drawing on 297 MW of hydro and 52 MW of wind.

The trajectory through today is clear: NSW and QLD will see their lowest-intensity windows once solar ramps hard from approximately 08:30 AEST, with the data showing NSW renewable penetration can reach 11–12% around 10:00–11:30 AEST and intensity dipping toward 0.78–0.79 tCO2/MWh. QLD's solar contribution remains thin — rarely exceeding 3% even at midday in this dataset — so meaningful intensity relief is limited there. Victoria's best windows follow a similar solar-plus-wind pattern, with intensity dropping to 0.59–0.66 tCO2/MWh through the 14:00–18:00 AEST period as wind holds strong and solar adds to the mix. SA's intraday low sits around 0.044 tCO2/MWh at approximately 16:00–16:30 AEST, with renewables sustaining above 90% through the 15:00–17:00 AEST window.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA offers the most favourable scheduling window today — the 14:00–17:00 AEST block sustains above 90% renewables and sub-0.05 tCO2/MWh intensity. Victoria's 13:30–18:00 AEST window is the next most attractive, holding around 50% renewables and 0.58–0.59 tCO2/MWh. In NSW and QLD, the midmorning solar ramp from 09:00–11:30 AEST represents the best available opportunity, though absolute intensity remains well above 0.77 tCO2/MWh. Evening demand in all mainland regions tightens intensity as solar drops off and coal and gas carry a larger share — loads that can shift to the 13:00–17:00 AEST block will see the most carbon benefit today.