regional vic — VIC1

The spot price in Victoria sits at $11/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,596 MW. That price represents a sharp recovery from the elevated conditions seen during this morning's peak, where prices ran at $100–$130/MWh between 17:30 and 19:00 AEST. Over the overnight period, prices traded at or below zero from roughly 09:30 to 13:00 AEST, reaching a trough of -$7.25/MWh. The 24-hour price arc reflects the classic autumn demand profile: sustained overnight lows driven by surplus supply, a sharp morning ramp through the $50–$130/MWh range as demand climbed from around 3,300 MW to a peak of 6,211 MW at 17:45 AEST, and a rapid collapse back to low double digits as the evening load eased.

The current generation mix shows brown coal at 1,905 MW, wind at 998 MW, gas OCGT at 110 MW, hydro at 0.22 MW, and solar at zero — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewables are contributing 33.13% of generation, with wind carrying the full renewable load given the absence of solar at this hour. Carbon intensity sits at 0.795 tCO2/MWh, a notable improvement from the overnight peak of 1.158 tCO2/MWh recorded around 17:30 AEST when demand was high and wind output was proportionally lower. The intensity has been trending down across the second half of the trading day as demand eases and the mix shifts.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting modestly from the current $11/MWh to around $18.94/MWh by the 07:00 AEST interval — a mild step up as morning demand builds. Earlier pre-dispatch runs from around 12:30–14:30 AEST had forecast the 07:00 interval at $67–$75/MWh, indicating the market has repriced considerably softer into the morning. Load window data confirms negative prices are expected to return from approximately 08:00 AEST through the overnight period, with indicative prices around -$3 to -$4/MWh from 08:30 AEST onwards — consistent with surplus wind generation into low overnight demand.

AEMO has issued a significant volume of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering intervals from 03:10 through to 06:15 AEST today. Several earlier intervals — including 02:40, 04:10, 04:45, 05:00, and 05:50 — have since been confirmed with prices unchanged. The remaining intervals between 03:15 and 06:15 AEST remain under active review. Traders with exposure to those intervals should note that settlement prices are not yet final. No price changes have been flagged in any confirmed interval to date, but positions should be assessed against the possibility of revision until all notices are resolved.