Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 30 March 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $97.19/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,091 MW. Tracing the price history over the past 24 hours, the region has traded in a relatively narrow band of $70–$130/MWh for the bulk of the period, with a brief spike to $247.88/MWh around 07:55 AEST on 30 March before settling back. The mid-period trough dropped as low as $70.24/MWh in the early hours, and prices have since firmed into the $96–$97/MWh range as morning demand builds. The 24-hour average sits approximately in the $94–$97/MWh range, meaning the current price is broadly in line with recent traded levels.

The generation mix is hydro-dominant, with hydro contributing 421.83 MW and wind adding 58.47 MW as of the latest interval. Gas OCGT output is zero. Total metered generation of approximately 480 MW against a 1,091 MW demand figure reflects the remainder being sourced via Basslink interconnector flows from Victoria, as is typical for Tasmania. Carbon intensity is recorded at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% for all intervals across the past 24 hours — a consistent result given the current fuel mix and the absence of any gas dispatch.

Predispatch forecasts point to stable pricing through the near-term window. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $96.24/MWh, with subsequent half-hour periods through to 09:00 AEST and beyond sitting in the $99–$101/MWh range — a modest upward drift of roughly $3–$4/MWh as the morning demand peak progresses. Early pre-dispatch runs from overnight had flagged the 07:00 AEST interval as high as $164.52/MWh, but successive re-runs have progressively revised that down to $96.24/MWh, signalling that supply conditions improved through the morning and the earlier elevated forecasts were not realised.

There is an active market notice issue to be aware of: AEMO has multiple intervals for today flagged as Prices Subject to Review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from 03:00 AEST through to approximately 12:15 AEST. Several earlier intervals — including 02:40 AEST, 04:10 AEST, 04:45 AEST, 05:00 AEST, and 05:50 AEST — have since been confirmed with prices unchanged. Traders should note that intervals from 05:30 AEST through to 06:15 AEST remain under review and final prices for those periods are not yet confirmed. No affected regions are specified in the notices, suggesting the review is NEM-wide rather than Tasmania-specific, but position holders with exposure to those intervals should monitor for any revisions.