commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $96.66/MWh at 06:30 AEST as demand reaches 6,554 MW, continuing an evening ramp that has pushed prices sharply higher over the past 30 minutes. The price-demand relationship today is tightly coupled: demand troughed near 4,970 MW overnight and prices spent extended periods at or below zero, with multiple intervals printing negative through the early hours. As demand climbed through the morning shoulder — crossing 6,000 MW around 15:30 AEST — prices stepped from the $40–55/MWh range into the $70s, and the acceleration above 6,400 MW in the last 30 minutes has driven the current sub-$100/MWh print. The day's peak demand of 8,075 MW occurred around 18:25 AEST and coincided with prices holding in the $71–80/MWh band, indicating the supply stack was adequately resourced through that window despite the load level.

The most recent AEMO forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval prices at $85.83/MWh, a step down from the current $96.66/MWh, suggesting dispatchers expect some easing as demand stabilises rather than continuing to climb. Earlier in the day, forecasts for this same period ranged from $95.73/MWh (early morning run) down to $72.75/MWh (the 05:31 AEST run), before converging back to $85.83/MWh — reflecting uncertainty around the rate of evening demand build. With demand currently at 6,554 MW and still rising, the $85.83/MWh forecast implies the market expects load growth to slow materially in the next 30 minutes.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a substantial number of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews covering intervals from approximately 03:30 through 06:15 AEST today, with several already confirmed unchanged. These reviews do not affect settled prices for those intervals but signal elevated AEMO scrutiny across the early morning and morning ramp periods. No demand-side curtailment or load management notices are active. The overnight negative price environment — where demand sat in the 4,970–5,250 MW band and prices repeatedly printed below zero — represents the day's low-cost window, which has now closed. Demand-side participants with flexibility should note the load window data points to a return to near-zero pricing in the 08:00–09:00 AEST band as the overnight trough repeats.