Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM is sharply divergent this morning. At 07:30 AEST, Tasmania sits at 0 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — entirely hydro and wind — while South Australia is at 0.03 tCO2/MWh with 94% renewable penetration driven by 711 MW of wind and minimal gas CCGT backup. At the other end, NSW is the highest-intensity region at 0.87 tCO2/MWh with just 1.5% renewables, as 5,738 MW of black coal dominates the mix and wind plus solar contribute only 86 MW combined. Queensland sits at 0.85 tCO2/MWh on 2.9% renewables, with 2,940 MW of black coal and negligible OCGT and hydro. Victoria is mid-range at 0.80 tCO2/MWh with 33% renewables — 998 MW of wind offsetting 1,905 MW of brown coal and 110 MW of OCGT.

The overnight and early-morning trajectory in SA tells the key story for today. SA's intensity was already sub-0.04 tCO2/MWh by 15:00 AEST (00:00 UTC) and has held there through to now, with renewable penetration consistently above 92%. That window has been running for roughly 16 hours and remains intact. Victoria's intensity has been on a gradual upward drift since its 07:30 AEST low near 0.72 tCO2/MWh, climbing as wind output eases into the morning peak period. NSW shows its worst intensity in the overnight-to-morning thermal baseload window, with the data confirming intensity held at 0.81–0.87 tCO2/MWh across the full period — solar contribution is negligible at this hour given it is pre-dawn.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling today, SA and TAS remain the clear choices for low-intensity dispatch windows at any time of day. SA's wind-dominated grid is sustaining near-zero intensity and that is unlikely to break materially unless wind output drops significantly or interconnector flows shift. In Victoria, the best windows of the day were around 04:00–05:00 AEST (18:00–19:00 UTC) when renewables reached ~39% and intensity touched 0.72 tCO2/MWh; afternoon solar ramping may offer a modest intensity dip again around 13:00–15:00 AEST if conditions repeat, but the baseline brown coal floor means Victoria will not approach SA-level intensity. NSW and QLD offer no credible low-carbon windows today given the current mix — operators with flexibility to shift loads interregionally or time-shift to SA/TAS consumption windows will achieve the greatest carbon abatement.