regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $118.69/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,809 MW — the highest level in the current dataset and reflecting the Monday morning business ramp-up. The price has surged sharply from the evening's $72–85/MWh range and is well above the overnight trough where prices repeatedly went negative, bottoming at -$60/MWh in the pre-dawn solar/wind oversupply window between roughly 14:15 and 14:45 AEST. The 24-hour price arc is textbook: deep negatives overnight, a step-change climb through the 17:00 AEST mark, and a steep push above $96/MWh from 06:00 AEST as the Monday peak load builds.

Brown coal dominates the generation mix at 2,203 MW, accounting for roughly 83% of the metered output in the latest trading interval. Gas OCGT is providing 109.5 MW of peaking support. Wind is contributing 331.79 MW, while solar output sits at zero — consistent with the 84% cloud cover and 06:00 AEST timing. Hydro is essentially offline at 0.32 MW. Renewables are contributing just 12.56% of generation at present, a significant step down from the midday high of around 19% seen earlier in the session when solar was active. Carbon intensity stands at 1.04 tCO2/MWh, down from the overnight peak near 1.12 tCO2/MWh but still reflecting the heavy brown coal baseload that characterises Victoria's grid.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period are converging around $80–84/MWh, down from the current $118.69/MWh spike, suggesting the market expects demand to stabilise as the morning ramp plateaus and dispatchable capacity responds. Earlier predispatch runs had the 07:00 period at $93/MWh; successive runs pulled that back to $80–84/MWh, indicating improving supply-side confidence. Flexible load operators and battery operators should note the load window data points to excellent shifting opportunities around the 08:00–09:00 AEST window, where forecast prices fall toward $8–11/MWh as overnight renewable surplus conditions are expected to return.

AEMO has issued a large volume of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering intervals from 05:05 through to 06:25 AEST this morning. These notices span the entire early-morning negative price and transition period, and at least one interval (04:25 AEST) has already been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. Traders with exposure to those intervals should treat settlement prices as provisional until AEMO completes its review process — the volume and persistence of these notices across more than 25 consecutive intervals is a material settlement risk flag for this morning.