Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 29 March 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $107.19/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand running at 1,212.57 MW — the highest level recorded in the dataset and up sharply from the overnight trough of around 748 MW at 12:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices tracked a stable $72–$88/MWh range through the small hours, briefly spiked to $127/MWh at around 17:55 AEST, then settled into a sustained $96–$107/MWh band through the morning peak as demand climbed. The current $107.19/MWh sits at the upper end of that band, reflecting the Monday morning demand surge.
Tasmania's generation mix is running entirely on renewables, with hydro contributing 446.4 MW and wind adding a marginal 2.2 MW. Gas OCGT output sits at zero. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100% — a status that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. The total metered generation of ~448.6 MW against demand of 1,212.57 MW confirms Tasmania is drawing heavily from Basslink interconnector imports from Victoria to meet the morning load gap, which is the primary driver of elevated prices.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period point to prices in the $130–$158/MWh range, with earlier forecasts running as high as $168.25/MWh before revising down to a $130/MWh consensus as the interval approached. The trajectory is unambiguously higher than current actuals, indicating the market is pricing in continued demand growth and constrained local generation into the breakfast peak. Traders holding exposure to the morning trading period should note this predispatch signal is consistent across multiple forecast runs, reducing the likelihood of a large downside revision.
AEMO has issued an extensive series of active market notices flagging prices for intervals between 02:35 and 06:30 AEST as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs). The sole resolved notice confirmed the 04:25 interval prices are unchanged. All remaining notices across the pre-dawn and early morning window remain active and unresolved. Participants should treat settled prices for those intervals as provisional — retroactive adjustments remain possible, which creates mark-to-market risk for positions covering that window.