regional sa — SA1

The SA spot price sits at $131.54/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,514 MW — a sharp lift from the $69/MWh range that dominated Sunday afternoon and evening trade. The 24-hour price profile tells a striking story: prices turned deeply negative through the early hours, bottoming at -$189/MWh around 15:00 AEST Sunday as wind generation flooded a low-demand overnight grid with minimal thermal commitment. From around 17:30 AEST the price recovered rapidly as demand climbed through the Monday morning ramp, and the $130+/MWh level now reflects peak-shoulder gas dispatch pricing the marginal unit on a Monday working day.

The current generation mix is entirely wind and gas. Wind is contributing 338.55 MW and gas CCGT 247.11 MW, with solar at zero given pre-dawn conditions. That split puts renewables at 57.81% of supply, which corresponds to a carbon intensity of 0.2067 tCO2/MWh — elevated compared to the 0.08–0.12 tCO2/MWh seen during Sunday night's wind-dominated hours but well below the 0.46–0.48 tCO2/MWh recorded through this morning's pre-dawn trough when wind penetration fell to 13–15% and gas carried the bulk of load. Carbon intensity will improve as solar ramps through the morning, though today's 95% cloud cover and zero solar potential score limit how much midday suppression to expect from rooftop and utility PV.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are consistently modelling a price around $88–$91/MWh, down materially from the current $131.54/MWh, suggesting the market expects gas dispatch to ease as demand peaks and stabilises. The forecast trajectory across multiple predispatch runs has tracked downward from $104/MWh earlier this morning toward $88/MWh in the most recent run, pointing to a softer mid-morning price band in the $88–$95/MWh range rather than sustained triple-digit prices. Flexible load operators should note the optimal load window flags 08:00 AEST (06:30 UTC) at approximately $33/MWh — consistent with the overnight negative-to-low price environment repeating as wind output rebuilds overnight.

A significant volume of active market notices warrants attention: AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every trading interval from 15:00 AEST through to 16:30 AEST today — spanning the pre-dawn negative price periods and the early morning ramp. One interval (04:25 AEST) has been confirmed unchanged via a "Prices Unchanged" notice, but the bulk of the early-morning period from approximately 15:00–16:30 AEST remains under active AEMO review. Traders with positions in those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO confirms or adjusts them. The volume and duration of these review notices — covering over 90 minutes of continuous intervals — is unusual and suggests a systemic input issue requiring close monitoring through today's session.