commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $66.30/MWh with total demand at 6,355 MW as of 6:30 AEST this morning — a Monday morning demand ramp that has pushed prices firmly into positive territory after an extended overnight period of negative pricing. The overnight trough saw demand fall to around 3,600 MW between approximately 9:45–10:30 AEST last night, with prices bottoming out near -$9.73/MWh as surplus black coal generation overwhelmed the low-demand grid. The transition from negative to positive pricing tracks almost perfectly with the demand ramp: prices crossed into positive territory just after 5:00 AEST as demand surged through 5,000 MW, reaching $62.71/MWh by 4:20 AEST when demand cleared 6,300 MW.
Price sensitivity to demand changes is pronounced in today's data. The step from ~5,250 MW to ~6,350 MW between 3:10 and 6:30 AEST drove prices from negative single digits to $66.30/MWh — a near-$75/MWh swing across roughly 1,100 MW of additional load. The morning peak registered $83.68/MWh at 5:20 AEST when demand briefly touched 7,232 MW, illustrating the steep marginal cost curve at high-demand levels with renewable penetration effectively absent — solar is contributing just 2.24 MW and renewables sit at a negligible 3.09% of the mix, leaving black coal carrying 2,762.79 MW of the visible dispatch stack.
Forecasts are pointing to $72.75/MWh for the 7:00 AEST trading interval, up from current levels, consistent with continued morning demand build on a Monday. Demand is tracking a typical weekday profile: the data shows the morning peak likely occurred around 5:50–6:30 AEST in the 7,400–7,680 MW range, and as commercial loads fully switch on through 7:00–9:00 AEST, any shortfall in dispatchable capacity will sustain prices in the $65–$75/MWh band. AEMO has issued a large volume of "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 3:00 AEST through to 4:36 AEST — a span of over 90 minutes of dispatched intervals flagged for potential manifestly incorrect inputs. Traders should treat settlement prices across those intervals with caution until AEMO confirms or revises them, as adjustments could materially affect contract reconciliation for early-morning positions.
The demand trajectory for the remainder of Monday points to a secondary pricing risk in the 13:00–17:00 AEST window as demand moderates into the mid-afternoon, then a late-afternoon ramp as cooling loads build post-sunset — though at 18.3°C and 85% cloud cover today, cooling demand is minimal and the evening peak is unlikely to replicate the morning's $83/MWh spike. The absence of solar output through the day (0% solar potential, 85% cloud cover) removes the usual midday price suppression Queensland sees on clearer days, keeping prices anchored in the $50–$70/MWh range across the trading day.