Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — entirely hydro and wind — and has maintained that position across every interval in the dataset. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.21 tCO2/MWh with 57.8% renewables, driven by 338 MW of wind backed by gas CCGT firming. These two regions are the clear options for carbon-sensitive load scheduling right now. NSW sits at 0.81 tCO2/MWh on only 8.3% renewables, with black coal dominating at 5,895 MW against negligible solar and wind output. Queensland is the dirtiest mainland region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh — 2,763 MW of black coal and just 3.1% renewables, a position it has held with remarkable consistency since approximately 08:00 AEST. Victoria sits at 1.03 tCO2/MWh on 13.7% renewables; brown coal is running at 2,201 MW with gas OCGT providing 110 MW of support, and wind contributing 367 MW — the only meaningful renewable input keeping intensity from climbing higher.

The data shows SA delivered its cleanest window earlier in the day around 07:00–08:00 AEST when intensity dipped as low as 0.07 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration above 83%. That window has since narrowed as wind eased and gas firming increased through the business day. The current 0.21 tCO2/MWh reading reflects a partial wind recovery, with intensity trending downward again from the 0.48 tCO2/MWh peak recorded around 08:30–09:00 AEST. NSW showed a modest solar contribution around 09:30 AEST pushing intensity to a daily low of 0.74 tCO2/MWh, but that window closed as solar generation fell away in the afternoon. Victoria's best interval today was 0.96 tCO2/MWh around 11:00–11:30 AEST when wind and solar combined for nearly 19% penetration.

For the remainder of today, SA is the best scheduling opportunity on the mainland. Wind is currently 338 MW and holding, and the intensity trajectory through the late afternoon and early evening has been consistently improving — SA ran between 0.13 and 0.16 tCO2/MWh from 17:00 to 19:00 AEST before ticking up slightly to 0.21 tCO2/MWh at the latest interval as wind softens into the evening. Expect SA intensity to creep higher overnight as wind generation fluctuates and gas carries more of the load. Tasmania remains unambiguously the best option for any load that can access it, with zero-emission hydro underpinning the entire dispatch stack. Avoid scheduling carbon-sensitive flexible loads in Queensland — there is no credible green window in that region today, with renewables locked below 4% for the entire business day.