regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $59.53/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 4,634 MW — well down from the morning peak of 5,460 MW seen around 18:35–18:40 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear two-act story: an extended overnight period of deeply negative prices (bottoming at -$12.40/MWh around 15:35–15:50 AEST) driven by excess supply against low Sunday demand, followed by a sharp morning recovery to $65–$82/MWh through the 17:00–21:30 AEST window as demand ramped. Prices have since eased back to the high $50s as the post-peak demand taper takes hold.

The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,186 MW — accounting for roughly 89% of local in-region output — with gas OCGT contributing 109 MW and wind only 139 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at just 5.73%, a significant deterioration from the overnight high of 45% achieved around 09:00–09:30 AEST when wind was more active and demand lower. Carbon intensity stands at 1.1247 tCO2/MWh, close to the session high, reflecting near-total reliance on Latrobe Valley brown coal. This is among the dirtiest grid conditions of the 24-hour window and is likely to persist until solar generation begins contributing post-sunrise.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices around $65.01/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, consistent with the current soft morning ramp. Load window data signals an excellent opportunity opening from approximately 07:30 AEST, with forecast prices dropping back toward $9–$11/MWh and turning negative again — reaching -$7.25 to -$11.32/MWh through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window — as Sunday morning solar generation begins to flood the grid against subdued weekend demand. Flexible loads and battery charging strategies should be positioned to capture this window.

AEMO has issued an extensive run of active market notices flagging prices subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a large block of intervals from 04:00 through 06:25 AEST today. One earlier interval (04:10 AEST) has already been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. Traders should treat published prices across these flagged intervals with caution until AEMO completes its review; retrospective price revisions remain possible. No market suspension or directions notices are active. Grid stress is elevated at 75.2/100 per the current score, reflecting the brown coal-heavy, low-renewable operating state, though no supply adequacy concerns are flagged at current demand levels.