regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $96.24/MWh against a demand of 960.84 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices ranged from a low of $72.24/MWh during the overnight trough to an intraday peak of $127.48/MWh during the morning ramp, with the market settling into a firm $96.24/MWh band through most of the afternoon and evening. The overnight average hovered in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh, placing today's current price roughly 30% above the deep overnight trough but well below the morning spike.

Tasmania's generation mix is running entirely on renewables. Hydro is supplying 332.45 MW and wind is contributing 14.7 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero dispatch. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration holds at 100% — a position that has been maintained continuously across the entire 24-hour history in the dataset. Demand at 960.84 MW is well within the hydro-dominated fleet's capacity to serve without any thermal support, underscoring Tasmania's status as the NEM's cleanest region by a significant margin.

Predispatch forecasts point to a modest upward move. The next interval (07:00 AEST) is forecast at $107.66/MWh across multiple predispatch runs, a level consistent with the morning peak already observed around 17:30–19:00 AEST. Forecasts for 08:00 AEST drift toward the $110–$114/MWh range before easing back toward $96–$99/MWh through the 08:30–09:30 AEST window. The loadwindow data signals "good" quality buying conditions in the 07:30 AEST slot at $95.46–$96.24/MWh, with conditions downgrading to "fair" around 08:00–08:30 AEST as prices edge toward $99–$100/MWh.

Traders should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for today's intervals spanning approximately 03:35 to 06:30 AEST. These cover more than 30 consecutive dispatch intervals. One prior review — for the 04:10 AEST interval — was concluded with prices confirmed unchanged, but the remaining notices remain active and unresolved. Settlements referencing these intervals should be treated as provisional until AEMO issues confirmation or revised prices. No affected regions are individually specified in the notices, so all NEM regions with interconnector exposure to Tasmania could be implicated depending on the review outcome.