regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $63.33/MWh with total demand at 1,252 MW, a notably softer outcome compared to the sustained $100–$138/MWh range that dominated the morning peak (07:30–11:30 AEST). The 24-hour price profile tells a sharp story: overnight wind surplus drove prices deeply negative — bottoming at -$20/MWh around 10:00 AEST — before a pre-dawn ramp through the $125–$230/MWh band as wind eased and gas carried the morning load. Prices have since settled into a narrow $55–$65/MWh corridor through the afternoon and evening, consistent with moderate demand and steady wind output.

The current generation mix is almost entirely wind-led, with wind contributing 543.75 MW and gas CCGT providing 100.14 MW. Gas OCGT and solar are both at zero output, the latter expected at this hour. Renewables are contributing 84.45% of consumption at a carbon intensity of 0.0762 tCO2/MWh — a clean outcome, though notably higher than the sub-0.04 tCO2/MWh readings seen during the overnight wind surplus. The day's emissions profile peaked in early morning when renewable penetration dropped below 20% at 06:00–08:30 AEST (carbon intensity reaching 0.45 tCO2/MWh) as wind generation thinned, forcing heavy gas dispatch. That period coincides precisely with the elevated price spikes and is the subject of extensive AEMO market notices.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering every trading interval from 03:00 through 06:30 AEST today. One interval — 04:10 AEST — has already been confirmed unchanged following review. The breadth of the review window, spanning the pre-dawn gas price spike, signals AEMO identified potential input anomalies during that period; traders with positions in those intervals should treat settlement prices as provisional until confirmed. Two intervals (02:05 and 04:10 AEST) are confirmed unchanged.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period target $71–$84/MWh, converging around $72–$73/MWh across multiple run times — a modest step up from current levels consistent with the solar ramp adding supply pressure through the morning. Load window analysis flags the 08:00–09:00 AEST period (UTC 22:00–23:00) as the optimal demand-shifting window, with forecast prices in the -$3 to -$11/MWh range as overnight wind output is expected to again outpace low off-peak demand. Flexibility assets and demand response operators should target that window; carbon intensity will also be near-zero during that period.