Carbon Forecast

South Australia and Tasmania are the standout performers right now. SA1 sits at just 0.08 tCO2/MWh with 84% renewable penetration, driven almost entirely by 544 MW of wind with gas CCGT providing a small 100 MW firming role. TAS1 is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh and 100% renewable, backed by 332 MW of hydro and 15 MW of wind — the cleanest grid in the NEM by a wide margin. At the opposite end, Victoria is the dirtiest region on the NEM at 1.11 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing only 7% — 2,192 MW of brown coal dominates the dispatch stack, supplemented by 108 MW of gas OCGT, with wind contributing a modest 170 MW. NSW sits at 0.82 tCO2/MWh with black coal carrying 4,798 MW and renewables at just 6%, while Queensland is at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with 2,345 MW of black coal and barely 4% renewables.

Victoria's intensity trajectory through the data is particularly stark. Renewables were carrying 39–45% of Victorian generation in the early morning hours (around 0700–0800 AEST), pushing intensity down toward 0.74 tCO2/MWh, before coal reasserted and intensity climbed steadily to where it sits now above 1.10 tCO2/MWh. SA followed a similar intraday arc — intensity spiked above 0.45 tCO2/MWh during the mid-morning demand ramp before wind recovered through the afternoon to deliver the current sub-0.08 tCO2/MWh reading. NSW and QLD have remained relatively flat and coal-heavy throughout the day, with solar providing only minor midday relief.

For the remainder of today, SA is the clear green window for carbon-sensitive load scheduling and will likely remain so through the evening given sustained wind output. TAS remains a perpetual green window. Operators with access to interconnector-adjacent loads or flexible demand in SA should prioritise dispatch now and through tonight. VIC and NSW intensity is unlikely to improve materially until tomorrow's solar ramp — avoid scheduling carbon-sensitive loads in those regions until after 0900 AEST tomorrow when solar begins to lift renewable penetration. QLD's renewable penetration is structurally low today with near-zero wind and negligible solar contribution, making it the least suitable region for emissions-conscious scheduling through the rest of this day.