Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 27 March 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $63.84/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 4,851 MW — a Saturday morning reading consistent with low residential and commercial load. The current price represents a sharp recovery from the prolonged negative-price period that dominated overnight, where prices fell as low as -$34.10/MWh between roughly 13:10 and 07:00 AEST as off-peak demand cratered and wind generation kept supply elevated. The transition back into positive territory began around 17:20 AEST yesterday, with prices climbing steadily through the $50–$63/MWh range into the current interval, tracking demand rising from a trough of around 3,988 MW toward the current 4,851 MW.

The generation mix is brown coal-heavy at this hour. Brown coal accounts for 1,773 MW — the dominant fuel source — with wind contributing 826 MW and gas OCGT providing 98 MW of peaking support. Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions, and hydro output is negligible at 0.32 MW. Gas CCGT is offline. This mix places renewable penetration at just 30.64% and carbon intensity at 0.8255 tCO2/MWh — well above the overnight lows of 0.50–0.59 tCO2/MWh recorded between 11:00 and 17:00 AEST when wind output was stronger relative to demand. Sustainability managers should note that this is one of the dirtier periods of the day for Victoria, with brown coal carrying the baseload absent any solar contribution.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are anchored at $57.18/MWh, down from the current $63.84/MWh, and earlier predispatch runs targeting the same interval had the price at $63.28/MWh (at 04:01 AEST) before settling lower as the picture clarified. This suggests the market expects a modest easing from current levels as demand stabilises on a Saturday morning rather than building into a weekday peak. The optimal load window data points to near-zero or negative prices returning around 08:00–09:00 AEST, with load shifting opportunities rated "excellent" — consistent with solar generation ramping and brown coal becoming relatively oversupplied through the middle of the day.

AEMO has issued a significant volume of active market notices today, all under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from 01:35 through 06:25 AEST. Several earlier intervals — including 02:15, 02:25, 02:45, 03:40, and 04:15 AEST — have since been confirmed with prices unchanged, indicating AEMO's review determined no manifestly incorrect inputs applied in those cases. Intervals from 04:40 through 06:25 AEST remain under active review. Traders with positions in those intervals should treat settlement prices as provisional until AEMO finalises each review.