regional sa — SA1
The SA1 spot price sits at $55.83/MWh against a demand of 1,351 MW as of 07:00 AEST this Saturday morning. That represents a marked recovery from an extraordinary overnight period where prices sustained deep negative territory — reaching as low as -$188.99/MWh around 01:35 AEST and holding negative continuously from approximately 07:30 Friday evening through to 07:00 Saturday morning. The overnight negative price run was driven by excess renewable generation relative to low weekend demand, with demand bottoming out near 521 MW around 01:25 AEST before climbing through the morning. The single intraday spike to $129.99/MWh at 19:30 AEST was brief and isolated within an otherwise orderly trading day.
The current generation mix is dominated by wind, contributing 588.93 MW, with gas CCGT providing a minimal thermal backstop of 42 MW. Gas OCGT is offline and solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions — solar will begin contributing as the morning progresses. Renewable penetration sits at 93.34% and carbon intensity is 0.0326 tCO2/MWh, among the lowest readings of the past 24 hours. Overnight carbon intensity peaked at 0.2279 tCO2/MWh around 04:00 AEST when thermal generation carried more of the load against lighter wind output and demand trough conditions — a counterintuitive pattern driven by minimum generation floor requirements.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices firming to around $59.31–$60.63/MWh for the 08:00 AEST half-hour, up modestly from the current print, with the near-term load window data suggesting prices ease back toward $5–$10/MWh around 08:30 AEST before dipping negative again near 09:00 AEST — consistent with solar generation ramping into a Saturday low-demand morning. Traders with flexible load should note the "excellent" quality low-price windows flagged from 08:30 AEST onward, with average window prices in the $5–$10/MWh range and isolated negative windows near -$13/MWh.
AEMO has issued a large volume of active market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 02:35 AEST through to 07:30 AEST today. Multiple earlier intervals have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged (04:40, 04:15, 03:40, 02:45, 02:25, 02:15, 02:05), but intervals from 02:50 AEST through to 07:30 AEST remain subject to review. Prices for these intervals — many of which were deeply negative — should be treated as provisional. Participants with settlement exposure to overnight intervals should monitor AEMO's notice board closely for confirmation or revision outcomes.