Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 27 March 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $55.40/MWh with demand at 5,644 MW — a low-load Saturday morning profile that is holding prices in a comfortable mid-range band. The day's demand trajectory tells the full story: from a overnight trough near 5,000 MW where prices were consistently negative (reaching as low as -$10.01/MWh between 0100 and 0500 AEST), demand climbed steeply through the morning peak to 8,015 MW at 0625 AEST, pushing prices into the $62–$68/MWh range. That peak has now unwound as the working day fails to materialise on a Saturday, with demand falling steadily since and prices compressing accordingly.
The price sensitivity to demand shifts across today's range is clear. Demand above roughly 7,500 MW anchors prices in the $60–$70/MWh corridor, sustained by black coal's dominant 2,572 MW contribution and hydro's modest 86 MW support — with solar generating just 2 MW and renewables providing only 3.33% of supply, leaving no meaningful merit-order suppression from variable generation. Below 6,000 MW, supply-demand balance loosens and prices drop toward the $50–$55/MWh range. The overnight period below 5,200 MW produced sustained negative pricing, driven by must-run baseload with nowhere to go.
The forward price signal is firmly bearish for the near term. Forecasts for the 0700 AEST half-hour are locked at $52.75/MWh and load window data points to near-zero and negative pricing through the 0730–0900 AEST window — consistent with Saturday demand remaining well below the 7,000 MW threshold that underpinned morning price strength. Demand-side managers and flexible industrial loads have an opportunity window as prices are expected to dip toward zero or negative before any late-morning recovery. Note that AEMO has issued a heavy volume of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under Clause 3.9.2B for intervals between 0515 and 0630 AEST, flagging potential manifestly incorrect inputs during the morning ramp — traders should treat settled prices in that window as provisional until AEMO's reviews conclude.