Carbon Forecast

SA1 is the standout performer at just 0.03 tCO2/MWh with 93% renewable penetration, driven by 589 MW of wind and minimal gas backup — a near-zero-carbon grid that has held consistently since solar came online this morning. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables (330 MW hydro, 62 MW wind), as it has been all day without interruption. These two regions are the NEM's cleanest right now and represent the best windows for carbon-sensitive load scheduling. SA1's intensity has been remarkably stable through the daylight hours, ranging from 0.03–0.04 tCO2/MWh since 07:00 AEST, and that profile is expected to hold until wind drops post-sunset, where a modest rise toward 0.05–0.08 tCO2/MWh is possible based on the overnight pattern seen in the data.

Queensland is the dirtiest region on the grid at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 3.3% — 2,572 MW of black coal dominating the mix and only 86 MW of hydro and 2 MW of solar contributing anything meaningful. This intensity has been effectively flat since 09:00 AEST, underscoring a generation fleet that is overwhelmingly thermal with no solar contribution of note. NSW sits at 0.82 tCO2/MWh with 7% renewables, 4,411 MW of black coal carrying the load and no gas or hydro dispatch at this interval. NSW did briefly reach 0.67 tCO2/MWh around midnight when wind lifted renewable share toward 24%, but the morning demand ramp erased that improvement and the state has tracked between 0.79–0.82 tCO2/MWh through the business day.

Victoria is mid-table at 0.81 tCO2/MWh — 1,767 MW of brown coal remains the backbone, partially offset by 869 MW of wind at 32% renewable share. This is meaningfully worse than its overnight position of 0.50–0.54 tCO2/MWh when wind was contributing above 54% and demand was lower; the morning demand ramp combined with brown coal inflexibility has pushed intensity up roughly 60% from that trough. VIC1 intensity is likely to remain elevated through the early evening peak before a gradual easing overnight as demand softens and wind continues to contribute.

For scheduling: Tasmania and SA are clear first choices for carbon-sensitive loads throughout today — both are operating in near-zero carbon territory right now and that is expected to persist. In SA, the prime window is the current solar-and-wind overlap period; schedule any flexible industrial loads before 17:00 AEST when solar exits and the wind-only overnight profile becomes slightly more variable. Avoid QLD1 and NSW1 for the remainder of the day — both are coal-dominated with no credible green window unless overnight wind lifts materially. VIC1 offers a partial opportunity after midnight when brown coal dispatch softens and wind share recovers toward the 50%+ levels seen in the early hours.