Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 26 March 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.24/MWh against a total demand of 1,140.78 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Scanning the 24-hour price history reveals a notable intraday range: prices dipped to a session low of $40.24/MWh during the late-morning solar shoulder (around 12:05–15:25 AEST equivalent UTC periods) before recovering firmly into the evening peak, where prices briefly spiked to $113.84/MWh around 05:30 AEST before settling back to the current $96.24/MWh floor. The weighted average across the visible history sits comfortably in the mid-$80s to low-$90s range, meaning the current price is running slightly above the day's average — demand is climbing, now 1,140.78 MW versus a midday trough of around 816 MW, consistent with the typical Friday evening ramp.

Renewables are contributing 100% of Tasmania's generation at this interval, with hydro delivering 350.24 MW and wind adding 186.73 MW, totalling approximately 537 MW of tracked generation against 1,140.78 MW total demand — the balance almost certainly reflects Basslink imports from Victoria, a standard operating condition for Tasmania during high-demand periods. Gas OCGT sits at zero output. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and has been at that level continuously across every recorded interval today, with renewable penetration holding at 100% throughout the entire 24-hour window — a clean sweep operationally.

Two market notices directly touched Tasmania's transmission network today. AEMO reclassified the Sheffield–George Town 1 & 2 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning at 17:32 AEST, invoking constraint set T-GTSH_N-2, which sits directly on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (Basslink). That constraint was subsequently cancelled at 21:22 AEST after lightning activity cleared. A second TAS1 notice reclassified the Norwood–Scottsdale 110 kV and Norwood–Derby–Scottsdale 110 kV lines as a credible contingency at 18:48 AEST, cancelled at 19:49 AEST with no constraint invoked. Both events have cleared, but the lightning activity signals transmission risk remains a watch item for today given autumn storm season conditions.

Predispatch forecasts are locked at $96.24/MWh across all target intervals through to 09:00 AEST tomorrow, with no demand forecast data populated — a flat predispatch profile at this price level suggests the market sees no significant supply disruption or demand spike for the remainder of today's trading. Sustainability managers can note the sustained 0 tCO2/MWh intensity and 100% renewable track record provides a clean procurement window all day. Grid engineers should monitor Basslink import dependency given the generation stack (537 MW local, ~1,141 MW demand) and keep the Sheffield–George Town corridor in view should further storm activity develop over northwest Tasmania.