Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 26 March 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at -$20/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,534 MW. Negative pricing has dominated for the bulk of the past 24 hours — a sustained stretch that briefly touched -$190/MWh around 14:05–14:15 AEST and held below -$100/MWh for extended periods through the early morning. The overnight trough saw demand fall to around 540 MW, with wind generation flooding the grid against minimal load. Prices only climbed into positive territory during the morning ramp between approximately 17:35 and 09:00 AEST, peaking near $31/MWh, before renewable oversupply pushed prices back negative as solar and wind built through the day.

Wind is the dominant fuel source, generating 607.9 MW with gas CCGT contributing 164.56 MW. Solar output sits at zero, consistent with the pre-dawn settlement time of this data. Gas OCGT is offline. Renewables are contributing 78.7% of generation, a solid figure for this time of day given solar is not yet a factor — overnight wind penetration earlier reached above 95% across multiple half-hour intervals, with carbon intensity dropping to a low of 0.0176 tCO2/MWh around 09:00–09:30 AEST. Current carbon intensity sits at 0.1044 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the modest but not negligible gas CCGT baseload running alongside wind.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period point to prices near flat, ranging from roughly -$0.22/MWh to $4.85/MWh across successive forecast runs, with the most recent estimates settling around $0.30–$0.42/MWh. This signals the market expects the current negative-to-near-zero price environment to persist as wind generation remains strong and solar has not yet added materially to supply. Load windows flagged for 08:00–09:00 AEST AEST are rated "excellent" with prices forecast between -$20/MWh and -$59/MWh — prime territory for flexible industrial loads, battery charging, and demand response activation.

One SA1-specific market notice is active: AEMO reclassified the Penola West–South East 1 132 kV and Kincraig–Penola West 1 132 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning at 15:24 AEST, though this was cancelled at 16:29 AEST with no constraint sets having been invoked — no binding impact on SA dispatch resulted. Several price review notices were issued across afternoon intervals from 14:20 to 15:50 AEST under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), with reviewed intervals confirmed unchanged. The broader NEM saw active lightning-related contingency reclassifications in VIC1 and TAS1 overnight, but these carried no direct constraint impact on SA interconnector flows. Grid stress scores at 52.9 and a renewable penetration score of 26.1 (relative to broader market conditions) reflect a system running long on renewable supply with limited ability to export surplus westward — the defining dynamic keeping SA prices negative through the day.