commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $77.53/MWh with demand at 6,837 MW at 6:35 AEST, well off today's peak of 9,286 MW reached around 17:40 AEST when prices were trading in the $120–146/MWh range. The demand trajectory today followed a textbook autumn weekday pattern: a pre-dawn ramp from a trough of roughly 5,047 MW (around 10:50 AEST) through a sustained morning peak above 9,200 MW between 17:00 and 18:30 AEST, before the evening load began unwinding. Price followed demand closely through that ramp, with the steepest price response occurring as demand crossed 8,000 MW on the way up — intervals above 9,000 MW consistently printed $120/MWh or higher, with a spike to $253.38/MWh at 6:10 AEST coinciding with demand at 6,761 MW on the evening wind-down, suggesting a supply tightness event rather than pure demand pressure at that point.

The current $77.53/MWh print reflects demand that has shed roughly 2,450 MW from the day's peak as the evening load rolls off. The price sensitivity evident in today's data is pronounced: each 1,000 MW increment above 8,000 MW broadly corresponded to a $30–50/MWh step up in price, while the overnight trough below 5,200 MW produced near-zero and negative prices as baseload coal (currently generating 3,165 MW) struggled to back down. Renewables are contributing just 2.95% of the mix at 0.854 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity — solar has effectively dropped off at 10.47 MW — meaning there is no renewable cushion to suppress prices as demand rebuilds.

Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are converging at $72.75/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to ease toward the 6,000–6,500 MW range as residential and commercial loads wind down on a Friday night. The load window data points to overnight demand troughs likely reaching near-zero prices around 09:00–10:00 AEST, replicating the pattern from the previous overnight session. The key price risk for traders today is the Friday morning peak: if tomorrow's demand ramp tracks today's, expect prices to re-enter the $90–130/MWh band as demand climbs through 7,500–8,500 MW from approximately 12:30 AEST onward. No Queensland-specific market notices are active; the contingency reclassifications in today's notices relate to VIC1, TAS1, NSW1 and SA1 transmission corridors and carry no direct QLD1 dispatch implication.