Carbon Forecast

The NEM's carbon picture at 06:30 AEST is sharply divided. Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro and wind delivering 537 MW combined with zero fossil dispatch. South Australia sits at 0.10 tCO2/MWh with 78.7% renewable penetration, wind supplying 608 MW and only a CCGT peaker (165 MW) bridging the gap. Victoria is at 0.52 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 55.9%, where 1,726 MW of wind is doing the heavy lifting but 1,287 MW of brown coal remains online as baseload. At the other end, Queensland is the dirtiest region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh — black coal accounts for virtually all of its 3,261 MW dispatch, with renewables at just 2.95%. NSW is close behind at 0.81 tCO2/MWh, with 5,772 MW of black coal dominating and renewables contributing only 7.6% via 325 MW of wind and 148 MW of solar.

The generation mix tells the story clearly. Solar is near-zero across all regions at this pre-dawn interval — NSW has 148 MW online but Queensland shows only 10 MW, and Victoria and SA are at zero. This is the structural floor for renewable penetration until generation ramps with daylight. SA and Victoria's strong overnight performance is entirely wind-driven; SA achieved peaks of 96% renewable penetration around midday earlier in the data window when wind remained strong. NSW and Queensland have no such wind buffer — both are structurally coal-dependent around the clock with wind too small to materially shift the carbon signal.

The outlook for today is favourable for SA and Victoria as solar adds to existing wind generation through the morning. SA's pattern from the data shows intensity holding around 0.10–0.11 tCO2/MWh through the afternoon as wind stays consistent; Victoria is likely to push below 0.45 tCO2/MWh as solar comes online between 07:30 and 15:00 AEST — its best window of the day. NSW will see a modest improvement as rooftop and utility solar lifts renewable penetration toward the 13–14% range seen in the 14:00–18:30 AEST window, nudging intensity down to approximately 0.77 tCO2/MWh. Queensland shows no meaningful green window today — renewables are locked below 3% across all daylight hours with no wind contribution recorded.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: SA and Tasmania are optimal for immediate and all-day dispatch — both are already at or near their daily lows and will stay there. Victoria is a strong second choice; target the 13:00–18:30 AEST window where today's data shows intensity troughing around 0.41 tCO2/MWh. NSW loads should be shifted to the 14:00–19:00 AEST solar window if flexibility permits, avoiding the 07:30–13:30 AEST coal-heavy morning peak where intensity exceeds 0.80 tCO2/MWh. Avoid scheduling carbon-sensitive operations in Queensland at any point today — the grid is coal-saturated and that will not change within this trading day.