regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at **$118.69/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, demand at 5,415 MW and climbing through the morning peak. That price represents a sharp escalation from the overnight trough, where prices collapsed to near-zero and briefly negative (touching **-$2.56/MWh** around 11:30 AEST overnight) as low demand met ample wind generation. The 24-hour average has been dragged upward by sustained triple-digit pricing across the morning ramp, which pushed above $100/MWh from around 15:35 AEST and has remained elevated since. The intraday high reached **$138.01/MWh** during the prior evening peak.

The generation mix is heavily skewed toward brown coal, with Latrobe Valley plant contributing **1,623 MW** — the dominant source. Wind is generating **371 MW** and hydro **81.6 MW**, together accounting for the renewable contribution. Gas OCGT is providing peaking support at **112 MW**, while solar output is zero given the overnight/early morning snapshot and CCGT dispatch sits at nil. Renewables are contributing just **20.7%** of the grid mix at this reading, well below the overnight high of 45.2% recorded around 11:00 AEST when wind was stronger and demand was low. Carbon intensity stands at **0.9383 tCO2/MWh** — elevated and consistent with brown coal dominating the dispatch stack. The intensity peaked at 0.9782 tCO2/MWh around 03:30–04:00 AEST when renewable penetration dropped below 18%.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period are pointing to prices in the **$100–$109/MWh** range, with the most recent forecast runs (from approximately 17:00–17:30 AEST forecast time) settling around **$105.56/MWh**. This indicates the market expects some price softening from the current $118.69/MWh as morning demand begins to ease off its peak, though prices are expected to remain firmly above $100/MWh through the early trading window. Load shift windows show the next genuinely cheap opportunity arriving around **08:30–09:00 AEST**, where prices are forecast to fall into the $9–$34/MWh range as overnight renewable surplus reasserts — rated "excellent" quality by the optimiser.

On the notices front, AEMO reclassified the **Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines** in VIC1 as a credible contingency event due to lightning at 19:06 AEST, with that reclassification subsequently cancelled at 21:09 AEST after lightning activity cleared — no constraint sets remain invoked in Victoria from that event. A separate batch of **Manifestly Incorrect Input reviews** for intervals spanning roughly 02:10–03:55 AEST today remain active, though the two intervals that have been fully reviewed (02:30 and 03:40) came back confirmed with prices unchanged. Grid engineers should note these reviews are still open for the bulk of the early-morning shoulder period; traders with settlement exposure to those intervals should monitor for any revision outcomes. A Queensland contingency reclassification involving the Kamerunga–Barron Gorge 132 kV lines (due to lightning, active from 06:11 A