Load Advisor: Friday 18 September 2026

Overnight negative pricing is running across the entire NEM right now, with VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 sitting at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST and NSW1/QLD1 both settled near $64/MWh at the last dispatch interval before predispatch turns negative. Predispatch shows all five NEM regions falling into negative or near-zero territory from roughly 07:00 AEST through to mid-morning, driven by strong solar output and low overnight demand. This is the primary load-shifting window for today.

SA1 offers the deepest savings: predispatch forecasts $-176.43/MWh at 13:30 AEST (target time, i.e. ~03:30 AEST local settlement) and a sustained trough of $-59 to $-119/MWh from 01:00 to 05:30 AEST. VIC1 follows with $-135/MWh around 03:30 AEST and a broad negative band from 22:00 to 07:00 AEST. NSW1 and QLD1 troughs are shallower (around $-20 to $-32/MWh) but still consistently negative from roughly 21:30 through to 07:00 AEST. TAS1 is more volatile — genuine negative pricing appears only in short pockets (23:00, 06:00–06:30 AEST) with the forecast otherwise oscillating between $0.20/MWh and spikes to $270/MWh, so shifting there carries higher timing risk.

All regions flip firmly positive from mid-morning: QLD1 and NSW1 climb into the $80-90/MWh range by 08:00-09:00 AEST and hold there through the afternoon peak (NSW1 peaking near $90/MWh around 12:00-13:30 AEST, QLD1 near $87/MWh at midday). VIC1 and SA1 are gentler by comparison, easing back toward $0-10/MWh in early afternoon as rooftop and grid-scale solar ramp up, before a second, smaller lift into the evening. Evening peak risk is moderate rather than severe today given the mild forecast temperatures (cooling demand at zero across all regions), but NSW1 and QLD1 both hold in the $70-80/MWh band from 16:00 to 18:00 AEST.

Recommendation: schedule all deferrable industrial and commercial load — EV charging, water heating, batteries charging, pool pumps, HVAC pre-cooling — into the 23:00-07:00 AEST window, prioritising SA1 and VIC1 assets where the $100-230/MWh savings versus peak are largest. NSW1 and QLD1 flexible loads should target the 00:00-05:00 AEST band specifically, avoiding the 07:00-13:30 AEST ramp when both regions climb sharply into the $80-90/MWh range. TAS1 assets should shift only into the confirmed troughs at 22:00-23:00 and 06:00-07:00 AEST, given the high forecast volatility either side of those windows.