Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 2 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $9.83/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, well below yesterday's volatile evening peak that touched $110.43/MWh during the 06:45-07:30 UTC window (16:45-17:30 AEST). Overnight prices have been sitting near zero to slightly negative for an extended stretch — several intervals from 16:30 to 19:55 UTC (02:30-05:55 AEST) printed at $0.01/MWh or lower, reflecting strong wind output against soft overnight demand. Current demand is 1,351 MW, tracking similar to this time yesterday.
Generation mix is heavily wind-dominated this morning: wind is contributing 1,409 MW, gas CCGT 42 MW, gas OCGT 0.11 MW, and battery output negligible at 0.16 MW, with solar at zero given pre-dawn conditions. This puts renewable penetration at 97.1% and carbon intensity at a very low 0.0142 tCO2/MWh — consistent with the pattern over the past 24 hours, where intensity fell from 0.17 tCO2/MWh during yesterday evening's peak down to below 0.02 tCO2/MWh through most of the afternoon and overnight as wind generation ran strong.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp reversal ahead. Prices are expected to stay near zero or negative through the early morning (targets of -$7 to -$2/MWh between 01:00 and 06:00 UTC, i.e. 11:00-16:00 AEST), before climbing steeply from 07:00 UTC (17:00 AEST) onward — forecasts show $80.44/MWh at 17:00 AEST, rising through $120-170/MWh into the evening, and peaking at $215.04/MWh around 22:00 AEST. This trajectory reflects the typical evening demand ramp combined with declining wind and solar contribution. Traders with flexible load should note the identified low-price windows between 12:00 and 17:00 AEST today, averaging -$5 to -$7/MWh, offering savings of up to $222/MWh versus evening peak pricing.
On notices, SA has seen a run of AEMO market interventions and directions over the past week tied to voltage support, including cancelled interventions on 1-2 September and prior directions to AGL SA Generation units (Torrens Island, Barker Inlet) and Synergen's Dry Creek gas turbines to maintain system strength during low-demand periods. No active SA-specific intervention is currently in force following the 2 September cancellation at 13:45 AEST. Separately, a Tasmanian network notice (Tungatina substation outage) has triggered interconnector constraints on the Basslink-related T-V-MNSP1 equations, which traders should watch for potential flow-on effects to Victorian-SA interconnector dynamics given SA's historical exposure to Heywood and Murraylink flows during high-wind, low-demand periods.